{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fd6f5e7-289a-4ef1-b51f-3db64a142dbb", "symbol": "DRFD", "name": "Desjardins RI Developed ex-USA exCanada Multifactor - Net-Zero Emissions", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.211, "architecture_energy": 74.026, "architecture_maturity": 23.306, "architecture_confidence": 79.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 69.83, "upward_expansion": 89.64, "deceleration": 49.26, "rotation_down": 19.88, "downward_expansion": 13.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.436666, 33.176988, 32.531188, 32.072366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 34.07, "trend_reference": 31.612852, "distance_from_trend": 0.077726, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.972628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364294, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.331914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.083013, "excess_performance": -0.037408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077726, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038656, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364294, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038048, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027294, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083013, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.913307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2653, "relative_activity": 0.511698, "balance": 1.913307, "dry_up": 1.382481, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019952, "annualized_volatility": 0.177042, "from_high_reference": -0.002635, "from_low_reference": 0.239623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.612852, "fair_value_reference": 24.972628, "structural_low": 28.722568, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011209, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.684211, "median_excess_return": -0.004609, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.059915, "worst_return": -0.111248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.041409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010753, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.125242, "worst_return": -0.023974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.116793, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015611, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.144055, "worst_return": 0.028549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 70.302614, "energy": 84.11627, "activity_lines": [ 32.99107, 32.46286, 31.838337, 31.556188 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.790001, "volume": 6773, "typical_volume": 5696.95, "trend": 31.251518, "fair_value": 24.694623, "relative_strength": -1.316205, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.098768, "energy": 79.995589, "activity_lines": [ 32.978799, 32.586608, 31.973864, 31.662566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.040001, "volume": 5905, "typical_volume": 5152.3, "trend": 31.367908, "fair_value": 24.784167, "relative_strength": -0.780751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.078981, "energy": 76.450929, "activity_lines": [ 33.001334, 32.734311, 32.131975, 31.777952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.349998, "volume": 13340, "typical_volume": 5380.4, "trend": 31.488661, "fair_value": 24.875699, "relative_strength": 0.649717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.601009, "energy": 62.991519, "activity_lines": [ 33.119333, 32.908013, 32.305826, 31.905828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.07, "volume": 2653, "typical_volume": 5184.7, "trend": 31.612852, "fair_value": 24.972628, "relative_strength": -0.331914, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.211297, "energy": 74.026091, "activity_lines": [ 33.436666, 33.176988, 32.531188, 32.072366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }