{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9fdc9ecb-1875-44d5-aac7-d0182d801e6d",
    "symbol": "UMAR",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - March",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 48.634,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.987,
    "architecture_energy": 70.975,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.932,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.762,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 12.16,
        "rotation_up": 65.27,
        "upward_expansion": 88.4,
        "deceleration": 51.17,
        "rotation_down": 24.04,
        "downward_expansion": 12.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        41.706515
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 42.88,
    "trend_reference": 41.210007,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.040524,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 36.024762,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190292,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.287672,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.063489,
    "excess_performance": -0.062135,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040524,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02162,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.190292,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004332,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052877,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00185,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063489,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.643187,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 33911,
      "relative_activity": 0.223089,
      "balance": 1.643187,
      "dry_up": 0.439438,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.009475,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.055445,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002443,
      "from_low_reference": 0.124574
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.210007,
      "fair_value_reference": 36.024762,
      "structural_low": 39.1832,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": 0.007036,
        "positive_rate": 0.795455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.795455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003578,
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        "best_return": 0.022834,
        "worst_return": -0.034672,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.065109,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.082362,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 184773.0,
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        "relative_strength": -3.245142,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.215,
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        "typical_volume": 167344.7,
        "trend": 41.035007,
        "fair_value": 35.86391,
        "relative_strength": -2.739617,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 63.560635,
        "energy": 64.321992,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.4601,
        "volume": 28383,
        "typical_volume": 161671.6,
        "trend": 41.11834,
        "fair_value": 35.943,
        "relative_strength": -3.088204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.896142,
        "energy": 65.130668,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 42.88,
        "volume": 33911,
        "typical_volume": 152006.8,
        "trend": 41.210007,
        "fair_value": 36.024762,
        "relative_strength": -5.287672,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.986803,
        "energy": 70.975176,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}