{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fddc048-1bb8-4f7e-b0fb-edad1fcbbd71", "symbol": "CRVO", "name": "CervoMed Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.894, "architecture_energy": 43.815, "architecture_maturity": 76.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.422, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.1, "rotation_up": 14.62, "upward_expansion": 6.9, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 56.19, "downward_expansion": 77.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.825333, 3.062727, 3.22681, 3.456559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.87, "trend_reference": 3.933, "distance_from_trend": -0.270277, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.324583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.692211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.829681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.45951, "excess_performance": -0.646964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270277, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.692211, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.578297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.45951, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 16.246819, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1891426, "relative_activity": 0.10785, "balance": 16.246819, "dry_up": 0.143726, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.34702, "annualized_volatility": 1.022323, "from_high_reference": -0.744889, "from_low_reference": 0.347418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.933, "fair_value_reference": 9.324583, "structural_low": 2.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.067669, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": -0.061356, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 1.763948, "worst_return": -0.767708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.296073, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.260927, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 2.223214, "worst_return": -0.792593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.469021, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.248968, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.294643, "worst_return": -0.879699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.560371, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.632117, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.575548, "worst_return": -0.753898, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.29361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.62934, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.113826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157867, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.654135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.385584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.204598, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.368209, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.442718, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.88, "volume": 2320757, "typical_volume": 152249.2, "trend": 6.565115, "fair_value": 30.373585, "relative_strength": -33.648302, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"typical_volume": 17371226.75, "trend": 4.4495, "fair_value": 9.366058, "relative_strength": -56.291198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.29942, "energy": 20.527217, "activity_lines": [ 3.436667, 3.347273, 3.468667, 3.760011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.66, "volume": 1491095, "typical_volume": 17422787.35, "trend": 4.268833, "fair_value": 9.352821, "relative_strength": -60.743231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.656439, "energy": 31.966139, "activity_lines": [ 3.128, 3.232182, 3.376667, 3.644559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.58, "volume": 1519219, "typical_volume": 17463329.45, "trend": 4.095167, "fair_value": 9.339551, "relative_strength": -61.209142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.797056, "energy": 39.718534, "activity_lines": [ 2.898, 3.116727, 3.283952, 3.535602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.87, "volume": 1891426, "typical_volume": 17537507.6, "trend": 3.933, "fair_value": 9.324583, "relative_strength": -57.829681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.894155, "energy": 43.81525, "activity_lines": [ 2.825333, 3.062727, 3.22681, 3.456559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }