{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fdee882-9f1b-4846-9289-9d35109feb45", "symbol": "UKE", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.679, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.945, "architecture_energy": 85.816, "architecture_maturity": 18.054, "architecture_confidence": 65.431, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.08, "rotation_up": 81.25, "upward_expansion": 94.8, "deceleration": 41.96, "rotation_down": 9.32, "downward_expansion": 19.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.36, 22.133728, 21.868381, 21.724344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.639999, "trend_reference": 21.548, "distance_from_trend": 0.050678, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.855942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.195933, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065662, "excess_performance": -0.105229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050678, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030462, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045309, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.686467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3498, "relative_activity": 0.403616, "balance": 2.686467, "dry_up": 2.170187, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016173, "annualized_volatility": 0.148781, "from_high_reference": -0.003082, "from_low_reference": 0.212511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.548, "fair_value_reference": 17.855942, "structural_low": 20.275, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005899, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.004046, "regime_survival": 0.685714, "best_return": 0.075474, "worst_return": -0.074918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010084, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.006657, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.140819, "worst_return": -0.040285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.067564, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.031487, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.120783, "worst_return": -0.057347, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.568195, "energy": 49.180458, "activity_lines": [ 21.840334, 21.750182, 21.600191, 21.522957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 12311, "typical_volume": 6672.05, "trend": 21.412, "fair_value": 17.756212, "relative_strength": -4.866679, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.224916, "energy": 65.534902, "activity_lines": [ 21.966334, 21.849909, 21.669857, 21.577785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.530001, "volume": 38693, "typical_volume": 8557.65, "trend": 21.486334, "fair_value": 17.805917, "relative_strength": -3.994269, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.614754, "energy": 72.913931, "activity_lines": [ 22.172001, 21.989637, 21.767215, 21.649914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.639999, "volume": 3498, "typical_volume": 8666.65, "trend": 21.548, "fair_value": 17.855942, "relative_strength": -6.195933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.945299, "energy": 85.815996, "activity_lines": [ 22.36, 22.133728, 21.868381, 21.724344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }