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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.133, "architecture_energy": 67.778, "architecture_maturity": 37.085, "architecture_confidence": 81.809, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.12, "rotation_up": 65.71, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 62.5, "rotation_down": 23.12, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4266.243327, 4243.287114, 4143.375343, 4082.269577 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4238.72998, "trend_reference": 4008.793367, "distance_from_trend": 0.057358, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3598.120277, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.17804, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.474723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092915, "excess_performance": 0.147582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057358, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.17804, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054747, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.009387, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331, "relative_activity": 1.57544, "balance": 0.009387, "dry_up": 0.405759, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01237, "annualized_volatility": 0.113184, "from_high_reference": -0.010528, "from_low_reference": 0.164829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4008.793367, "fair_value_reference": 3598.120277, "structural_low": 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4049.930567, 4006.012966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4280.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 194.35, "trend": 3966.94279, "fair_value": 3569.841981, "relative_strength": 7.100702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.061332, "energy": 92.252876, "activity_lines": [ 4261.015755, 4170.838956, 4076.85301, 4027.129231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4280.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 194.1, "trend": 3981.351538, "fair_value": 3579.356264, "relative_strength": 7.44325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.309644, "energy": 90.242725, "activity_lines": [ 4275.266667, 4204.900022, 4101.859095, 4047.326471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4280.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 193.55, "trend": 3995.760286, "fair_value": 3588.870546, "relative_strength": 6.526753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.008711, "energy": 89.29717, "activity_lines": [ 4279.8, 4231.550621, 4125.488557, 4066.594113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4238.72998, "volume": 331, "typical_volume": 210.1, "trend": 4008.793367, "fair_value": 3598.120277, "relative_strength": 5.474723, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.133144, "energy": 67.777797, "activity_lines": [ 4266.243327, 4243.287114, 4143.375343, 4082.269577 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }