{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fe44697-9175-44b4-ab83-608e77a34975", "symbol": "GWT", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Europe Growth UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.663, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.58, "architecture_energy": 39.554, "architecture_maturity": 42.998, "architecture_confidence": 72.225, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.32, "rotation_up": 37.9, "upward_expansion": 65.32, "deceleration": 86.38, "rotation_down": 27.19, "downward_expansion": 17.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 215.963332, 216.29818, 213.625808, 210.727289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 218.800003, "trend_reference": 208.166999, "distance_from_trend": 0.051079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 194.773852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123354, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.392601, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075184, "excess_performance": -0.095707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075184, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.08344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 124, "relative_activity": 0.266925, "balance": 1.08344, "dry_up": 0.622107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019407, "annualized_volatility": 0.169339, "from_high_reference": -0.01685, "from_low_reference": 0.177401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 208.166999, "fair_value_reference": 194.773852, "structural_low": 189.0, "invalidation": "A 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"positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016394, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.683227, "energy": 76.834466, "activity_lines": [ 217.799998, 215.594544, 210.643475, 208.594235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 213.199997, "volume": 715, "typical_volume": 573.5, "trend": 206.819666, "fair_value": 194.227882, "relative_strength": -7.162789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.21275, "energy": 53.011868, "activity_lines": [ 216.403331, 215.602726, 211.238665, 209.038601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.449997, "volume": 261, "typical_volume": 480.05, "trend": 207.368666, "fair_value": 194.399256, "relative_strength": -6.25149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.342846, "energy": 44.152531, "activity_lines": [ 215.549997, 215.696362, 211.945284, 209.53088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 214.949997, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 471.8, "trend": 207.836999, "fair_value": 194.571951, "relative_strength": -6.500599, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.8243, "energy": 31.946472, "activity_lines": [ 215.099997, 215.682725, 212.641427, 210.019998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 218.800003, "volume": 124, "typical_volume": 464.55, "trend": 208.166999, "fair_value": 194.773852, "relative_strength": -7.392601, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.579555, "energy": 39.554278, "activity_lines": [ 215.963332, 216.29818, 213.625808, 210.727289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }