{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fe53b15-e00a-49ed-b278-1c756a04980b", "symbol": "SPXS", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.341, "architecture_energy": 64.393, "architecture_maturity": 76.687, "architecture_confidence": 50.157, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.81, "rotation_up": 49.61, "upward_expansion": 79.92, "deceleration": 74.12, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 11.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.2, 13.149891, 12.962467, 12.668611 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.47, "trend_reference": 12.320333, "distance_from_trend": 0.093315, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 781.096217, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.982755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -97.321017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.156025, "excess_performance": -0.014867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.948911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.982755, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.97321, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010699, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.899807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1182953, "relative_activity": 1.503805, "balance": 1.899807, "dry_up": 1.719901, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019119, "annualized_volatility": 0.118147, "from_high_reference": -0.988671, "from_low_reference": 0.215265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.320333, "fair_value_reference": 781.096217, "structural_low": 11.084, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011072, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.010734, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.070936, "worst_return": -0.014449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034204, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05696, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.150356, "worst_return": -0.046862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128462, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.064885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181654, "worst_return": -0.027369, "sufficient": false }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059684, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089384, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"volume": 1492735, "typical_volume": 814556.8, "trend": 12.176067, "fair_value": 796.118332, "relative_strength": -97.678293, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.243275, "energy": 58.735146, "activity_lines": [ 13.134267, 13.074218, 12.761371, 12.482757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.12, "volume": 1540509, "typical_volume": 806068.1, "trend": 12.224333, "fair_value": 791.050961, "relative_strength": -97.557079, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.161656, "energy": 58.706579, "activity_lines": [ 13.135333, 13.091891, 12.828752, 12.543656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.96, "volume": 1195573, "typical_volume": 811402.6, "trend": 12.268867, "fair_value": 786.050448, "relative_strength": -97.479833, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.958468, "energy": 56.809218, "activity_lines": [ 13.082267, 13.074727, 12.874495, 12.591118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.47, "volume": 1182953, "typical_volume": 786639.65, "trend": 12.320333, "fair_value": 781.096217, "relative_strength": -97.321017, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.341325, "energy": 64.392528, "activity_lines": [ 13.2, 13.149891, 12.962467, 12.668611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }