{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fe5fd7d-aff2-439f-a010-6429082dadc0", "symbol": "002329", "name": "Royal Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.393, "architecture_energy": 32.354, "architecture_maturity": 31.26, "architecture_confidence": 62.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.02, "rotation_up": 23.7, "upward_expansion": 15.86, "deceleration": 65.59, "rotation_down": 38.59, "downward_expansion": 63.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.12, 3.081273, 3.413, 3.567828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.15, "trend_reference": 3.721333, "distance_from_trend": -0.153529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.002372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.039372, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157754, "excess_performance": -0.165154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190394, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130779, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762219, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 314903959, "relative_activity": 1.671924, "balance": 0.762219, "dry_up": 1.362072, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157265, "annualized_volatility": 0.564864, "from_high_reference": -0.359756, "from_low_reference": 0.197719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.721333, "fair_value_reference": 4.002372, "structural_low": 2.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.013736, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.022179, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.275766, "worst_return": -0.172489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01269, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.013198, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.166154, "worst_return": -0.393013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072208, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.106391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042895, "worst_return": -0.240175, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.223077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.11098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281437, "worst_return": -0.320961, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.115486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255814, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275463, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.254438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.227882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.346939, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135849, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.6, "volume": 104093208, "typical_volume": 93514201.0, "trend": 6.848667, "fair_value": 5.666415, "relative_strength": -4.787306, "stage": 4, "regime": 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-64.154116, "energy": 76.737363, "activity_lines": [ 3.0, 3.302364, 3.651476, 3.746043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.23, "volume": 268492442, "typical_volume": 166108064.1, "trend": 3.845667, "fair_value": 4.070385, "relative_strength": -15.769065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.520075, "energy": 57.841597, "activity_lines": [ 3.082667, 3.229455, 3.597048, 3.70514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.1, "volume": 196198843, "typical_volume": 169360300.4, "trend": 3.796333, "fair_value": 4.04859, "relative_strength": -18.643005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.009611, "energy": 41.308987, "activity_lines": [ 3.117333, 3.154364, 3.533143, 3.657032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.01, "volume": 246580073, "typical_volume": 177203278.6, "trend": 3.746333, "fair_value": 4.026218, "relative_strength": -19.184867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.011592, "energy": 36.001256, "activity_lines": [ 3.107333, 3.092909, 3.464429, 3.606301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.15, "volume": 314903959, "typical_volume": 188348236.3, "trend": 3.721333, "fair_value": 4.002372, "relative_strength": -19.039372, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.392865, "energy": 32.353593, "activity_lines": [ 3.12, 3.081273, 3.413, 3.567828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }