{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fe62730-a27a-44d8-a35f-215ba2a9bae3", "symbol": "2240", "name": "Nikko Asset Management Co.,Ltd. - Listed Index Fund Sandp500 Futures Inverse Fund", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.054, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.063, "architecture_energy": 53.841, "architecture_maturity": 56.221, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 7.69, "deceleration": 56.6, "rotation_down": 53.03, "downward_expansion": 81.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5383.133333, 5407.509091, 5450.452381, 5557.027957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5266.0, "trend_reference": 5677.633333, "distance_from_trend": -0.072501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6955.685897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.775312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114809, "excess_performance": -0.324067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028108, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257753, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064676, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4790, "relative_activity": 2.890243, "balance": 0.24382, "dry_up": 1.579376, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02343, "annualized_volatility": 0.117273, "from_high_reference": -0.182425, "from_low_reference": 0.009006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5677.633333, "fair_value_reference": 6955.685897, "structural_low": 5219.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.013423, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.039224, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.059052, "worst_return": -0.029579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.084339, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.038539, "worst_return": -0.067532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075854, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.395797, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.018545, "worst_return": -0.089104, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047122, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.083008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"direction": -48.499508, "energy": 44.442622, "activity_lines": [ 5424.266667, 5423.654545, 5517.728571, 5618.064516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5480.0, "volume": 259, "typical_volume": 1502.9, "trend": 5709.7, "fair_value": 6999.115385, "relative_strength": -23.491556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.684221, "energy": 46.21507, "activity_lines": [ 5439.733333, 5434.618182, 5501.147619, 5602.513978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5435.0, "volume": 3306, "typical_volume": 1495.15, "trend": 5696.333333, "fair_value": 6978.102564, "relative_strength": -22.88087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.045182, "energy": 43.087985, "activity_lines": [ 5436.133333, 5436.581818, 5482.380952, 5584.791398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5266.0, "volume": 4790, "typical_volume": 1657.3, "trend": 5677.633333, "fair_value": 6955.685897, "relative_strength": -25.775312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.062753, "energy": 53.841153, "activity_lines": [ 5383.133333, 5407.509091, 5450.452381, 5557.027957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }