{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fe6f492-28da-4185-9841-d4f3b88a2f16", "symbol": "PCVX", "name": "Vaxcyte\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.854, "architecture_energy": 13.653, "architecture_maturity": 24.044, "architecture_confidence": 73.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.9, "rotation_up": 43.73, "upward_expansion": 34.23, "deceleration": 39.09, "rotation_down": 24.8, "downward_expansion": 20.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.084, 55.672545, 54.556048, 54.919161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 58.07, "trend_reference": 54.988667, "distance_from_trend": 0.056036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.017949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048313, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.656934, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034194, "excess_performance": -0.15326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056036, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049482, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048313, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078199, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036569, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03362, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034194, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.092303, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5109905, "relative_activity": 0.74278, "balance": 1.092303, "dry_up": 0.706895, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083043, "annualized_volatility": 0.419151, "from_high_reference": -0.106615, "from_low_reference": 0.968141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.988667, "fair_value_reference": 61.017949, "structural_low": 45.3, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.055056, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.021226, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.232789, "worst_return": -0.250525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000841, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.008391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.345217, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.20038, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.792688, "worst_return": -0.088272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.251472, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.234423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.487391, "worst_return": 1.015553, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01019, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.595476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037323, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068003, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097156, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00548, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 49.82, "volume": 3410224, "typical_volume": 3836337.6, "trend": 45.597667, "fair_value": 31.274231, "relative_strength": 3.193148, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": 4.31584, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.822939, "energy": 24.65158, "activity_lines": [ 56.402, 54.639091, 54.299667, 54.710903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.08, "volume": 5064741, "typical_volume": 7035833.9, "trend": 54.588, "fair_value": 60.948333, "relative_strength": 2.163328, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.561484, "energy": 14.491572, "activity_lines": [ 55.496667, 54.854727, 54.236667, 54.694516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.07, "volume": 5109905, "typical_volume": 6879436.15, "trend": 54.988667, "fair_value": 61.017949, "relative_strength": 3.656934, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.854326, "energy": 13.652808, "activity_lines": [ 56.084, 55.672545, 54.556048, 54.919161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }