{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9fe7289d-7088-4a48-9abf-a371ff3ee490", "symbol": "XBIO", "name": "Xenetic Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.027, "architecture_energy": 13.582, "architecture_maturity": 20.021, "architecture_confidence": 81.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.71, "rotation_up": 31.14, "upward_expansion": 42.2, "deceleration": 78.16, "rotation_down": 33.02, "downward_expansion": 38.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.813933, 2.818891, 2.911533, 2.893306 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.17, "trend_reference": 2.799257, "distance_from_trend": 0.132443, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.485529, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090525, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.528823, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.524038, "excess_performance": 0.336585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132443, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061709, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039645, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102459, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.524038, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.973674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1090678, "relative_activity": 8.503622, "balance": 1.973674, "dry_up": 2.628056, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122744, "annualized_volatility": 0.711233, "from_high_reference": -0.772434, "from_low_reference": 0.668421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.799257, "fair_value_reference": 3.485529, "structural_low": 2.05, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.090486, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073981, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.355292, "worst_return": -0.126844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018186, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32646, "worst_return": -0.362832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.041083, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33866, "worst_return": -0.420826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.20056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.254983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292096, "worst_return": -0.693215, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.029907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075676, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032491, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.589258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086777, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.189723, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.250493, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.56, "volume": 30382, "typical_volume": 180225.1, "trend": 4.15069, "fair_value": 12.210037, "relative_strength": -32.547017, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.807914, "energy": 8.648969, "activity_lines": [ 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.363568, "energy": 13.73654, "activity_lines": [ 2.826, 2.926091, 2.98242, 2.88328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.782, "volume": 80826, "typical_volume": 89335.2, "trend": 2.735623, "fair_value": 3.504087, "relative_strength": -14.706422, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.929016, "energy": 16.199798, "activity_lines": [ 2.79, 2.889491, 2.96613, 2.887631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.64, "volume": 133502, "typical_volume": 93839.9, "trend": 2.75429, "fair_value": 3.496907, "relative_strength": -16.885719, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.282612, "energy": 31.835015, "activity_lines": [ 2.734533, 2.832309, 2.935118, 2.881462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.535, "volume": 43296, "typical_volume": 84918.3, "trend": 2.767123, "fair_value": 3.488542, "relative_strength": -19.917212, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.30998, "energy": 40.802286, "activity_lines": [ 2.654733, 2.763382, 2.892438, 2.867314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.17, "volume": 1090678, "typical_volume": 128260.4, "trend": 2.799257, "fair_value": 3.485529, "relative_strength": -4.528823, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.027451, "energy": 13.58156, "activity_lines": [ 2.813933, 2.818891, 2.911533, 2.893306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }