{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9feed3e0-ab34-4072-8c89-b902c9b742ef", "symbol": "002015", "name": "GCL Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.58, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.017, "architecture_energy": 36.044, "architecture_maturity": 9.875, "architecture_confidence": 48.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.62, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 11.98, "deceleration": 53.21, "rotation_down": 60.44, "downward_expansion": 51.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.922667, 15.468212, 17.205602, 17.342322 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.8, "trend_reference": 16.604277, "distance_from_trend": -0.048438, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.953806, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.442421, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.357318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.507634, "excess_performance": 0.500234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140779, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.442421, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.473499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083573, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.258546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.507634, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.08613, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 430020038, "relative_activity": 0.77018, "balance": 2.08613, "dry_up": 0.726616, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173251, "annualized_volatility": 0.889755, "from_high_reference": -0.380265, "from_low_reference": 0.633919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.604277, "fair_value_reference": 10.953806, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021934, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.021214, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144282, "worst_return": -0.035391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089345, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.051438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.557328, "worst_return": -0.036885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.427059, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.369275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.213581, "worst_return": -0.161079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": -6.702074, "energy": 22.546433, "activity_lines": [ 17.350776, 18.91431, 19.0078, 17.809873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.88, "volume": 341302580, "typical_volume": 688746461.15, "trend": 15.994277, "fair_value": 10.911797, "relative_strength": -3.584491, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.891051, "energy": 26.979279, "activity_lines": [ 16.243981, 18.070327, 18.666379, 17.748759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.07, "volume": 230987406, "typical_volume": 681011587.25, "trend": 16.097944, "fair_value": 10.911408, "relative_strength": -6.574274, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.769147, "energy": 53.87597, "activity_lines": [ 15.022, 16.947732, 18.139149, 17.560096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.5, "volume": 617079836, "typical_volume": 675927872.15, "trend": 16.248277, "fair_value": 10.918307, "relative_strength": 3.330284, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.061813, "energy": 53.972305, "activity_lines": [ 14.54, 16.216091, 17.7533, 17.457002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.08, "volume": 344699561, "typical_volume": 615329028.6, "trend": 16.409277, "fair_value": 10.932746, "relative_strength": 9.080378, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.043844, "energy": 50.699537, "activity_lines": [ 14.526667, 15.718913, 17.428022, 17.38163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.8, "volume": 430020038, "typical_volume": 558337001.1, "trend": 16.604277, "fair_value": 10.953806, "relative_strength": 8.357318, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.016847, "energy": 36.043635, "activity_lines": [ 14.922667, 15.468212, 17.205602, 17.342322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }