{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ff258e0-7153-48c7-9f9a-70ac9e0eea96", "symbol": "MLIML", "name": "ImAlliance SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.202, "architecture_energy": 86.132, "architecture_maturity": 13.673, "architecture_confidence": 81.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.56, "rotation_up": 72.26, "upward_expansion": 95.32, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 12.69, "downward_expansion": 21.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.259333, 0.252727, 0.237805, 0.225772 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.218167, "distance_from_trend": 0.145913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.305083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180552, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.093018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007937, "excess_performance": -0.061248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145913, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053781, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180552, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140658, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.550459, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.550459, "dry_up": 0.606713, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050462, "annualized_volatility": 0.896228, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.612903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.218167, "fair_value_reference": 0.305083, "structural_low": 0.155, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.108796, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.118373, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.383333, "worst_return": -0.582222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.240364, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.31038, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.76, "worst_return": -0.610553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.417085, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.451797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632, "worst_return": -0.608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.13592, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.256, "worst_return": -0.487407, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.232877, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.457286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.301775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.466667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.3, "volume": 2921, "typical_volume": 4496.45, "trend": 0.274133, "fair_value": 0.219699, "relative_strength": -8.772989, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.232, 0.2264, 0.21269, 0.214716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.264, "volume": 166, "typical_volume": 2635.15, "trend": 0.2313, "fair_value": 0.305237, "relative_strength": 7.191511, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.758243, "energy": 46.386329, "activity_lines": [ 0.242667, 0.233673, 0.218657, 0.216619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.264, "volume": 4060, "typical_volume": 2838.15, "trend": 0.226833, "fair_value": 0.305481, "relative_strength": 7.054033, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.429192, "energy": 58.399622, "activity_lines": [ 0.2512, 0.241091, 0.224319, 0.218729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.264, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2023.15, "trend": 0.222367, "fair_value": 0.305442, "relative_strength": 6.493069, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.430044, "energy": 69.468746, "activity_lines": [ 0.2576, 0.247345, 0.229676, 0.221127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.264, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1865.15, "trend": 0.219633, "fair_value": 0.305212, "relative_strength": 5.189558, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.113683, "energy": 87.075797, "activity_lines": [ 0.261867, 0.252073, 0.234633, 0.223813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1672.95, "trend": 0.218167, "fair_value": 0.305083, "relative_strength": -2.093018, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.201927, "energy": 86.132104, "activity_lines": [ 0.259333, 0.252727, 0.237805, 0.225772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }