{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ff3c11f-8563-4539-99d6-6cf557a82654", "symbol": "600320", "name": "Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.3, "architecture_energy": 50.837, "architecture_maturity": 65.476, "architecture_confidence": 82.131, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.04, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 13.36, "deceleration": 60.59, "rotation_down": 46.97, "downward_expansion": 75.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.167658, 4.169706, 4.423556, 4.603763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.17, "trend_reference": 4.824777, "distance_from_trend": -0.135711, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.0508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.760727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185547, "excess_performance": -0.142343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040037, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029426, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306813, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142514, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.436083, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188027588, "relative_activity": 0.910078, "balance": 0.436083, "dry_up": 1.002847, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064353, "annualized_volatility": 0.338308, "from_high_reference": -0.261947, "from_low_reference": 0.078276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.824777, "fair_value_reference": 4.0508, "structural_low": 3.867286, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.027762, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005796, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.225308, "worst_return": -0.093374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00303, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014764, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.19469, "worst_return": -0.078212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.013275, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.061897, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.082596, "worst_return": -0.075419, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 4.152866, 4.189948, 4.46962, 4.648071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.17, "volume": 188027588, "typical_volume": 206606086.2, "trend": 4.824777, "fair_value": 4.0508, "relative_strength": -11.760727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.299758, "energy": 50.8366, "activity_lines": [ 4.167658, 4.169706, 4.423556, 4.603763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }