{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ff3e2c9-af5a-401e-84d6-574c14465350", "symbol": "200530", "name": "Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.457, "architecture_energy": 25.374, "architecture_maturity": 79.29, "architecture_confidence": 67.567, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.64, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 45.9, "rotation_down": 24.62, "downward_expansion": 54.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.571333, 1.561428, 1.579221, 1.615471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.670293, "distance_from_trend": -0.060045, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.570559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.583358, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132597, "excess_performance": -0.139996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060045, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040613, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115834, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107224, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375921, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 636903, "relative_activity": 0.590076, "balance": 1.375921, "dry_up": 0.638638, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035733, "annualized_volatility": 0.11788, "from_high_reference": -0.160428, "from_low_reference": 0.051019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.670293, "fair_value_reference": 1.570559, "structural_low": 1.493788, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.003165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.000698, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.032599, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.006755, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.217692, "worst_return": -0.08284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.070886, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.217692, "worst_return": -0.109677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-61.818349, "energy": 51.97993, "activity_lines": [ 1.54465, 1.559885, 1.602483, 1.645784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.55, "volume": 607430, "typical_volume": 1184619.25, "trend": 1.690293, "fair_value": 1.569217, "relative_strength": -10.427996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.324113, "energy": 48.293686, "activity_lines": [ 1.546147, 1.554998, 1.593204, 1.636195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.57, "volume": 906370, "typical_volume": 1137218.7, "trend": 1.683293, "fair_value": 1.569783, "relative_strength": -9.229684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.216565, "energy": 40.944417, "activity_lines": [ 1.554419, 1.555384, 1.586971, 1.628434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.59, "volume": 606571, "typical_volume": 1093551.75, "trend": 1.677626, "fair_value": 1.570356, "relative_strength": -6.282584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.011597, "energy": 29.856266, "activity_lines": [ 1.568774, 1.560133, 1.583596, 1.622415 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 636903, "typical_volume": 1079356.9, "trend": 1.670293, "fair_value": 1.570559, "relative_strength": -11.583358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.456798, "energy": 25.37395, "activity_lines": [ 1.571333, 1.561428, 1.579221, 1.615471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }