{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ff79c17-9095-4a64-b52c-2c97a25b9b16", "symbol": "TRANS", "name": "Transtema Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.667, "architecture_energy": 20.078, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 53.842, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.84, "rotation_up": 39.31, "upward_expansion": 31.17, "deceleration": 48.66, "rotation_down": 14.34, "downward_expansion": 41.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.460333, 4.227182, 4.111253, 4.332276 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.22, "trend_reference": 4.832851, "distance_from_trend": 0.080108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.15542, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.570562, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.823448, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135762, "excess_performance": -0.197256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080108, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.570562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111609, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.378234, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.102461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 742836, "relative_activity": 2.905259, "balance": 2.102461, "dry_up": 1.123547, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109343, "annualized_volatility": 0.633336, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.657143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.832851, "fair_value_reference": 12.15542, "structural_low": 3.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.014199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01147, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.254815, "worst_return": -0.364548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.244821, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.242957, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.273339, "worst_return": -0.365873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.137511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14519, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.403701, "worst_return": -0.578571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -45.915011, "energy": 35.582331, "activity_lines": [ 3.919333, 3.840646, 4.140408, 4.644669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.94, "volume": 85436, "typical_volume": 234948.2, "trend": 5.376851, "fair_value": 12.496958, "relative_strength": -57.341796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.13888, "energy": 27.902642, "activity_lines": [ 3.959667, 3.849818, 4.087573, 4.542764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.93, "volume": 95556, "typical_volume": 231498.2, "trend": 5.244517, "fair_value": 12.406125, "relative_strength": -55.492902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.89959, "energy": 26.460181, "activity_lines": [ 3.973, 3.869364, 4.042165, 4.449419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.075, "volume": 135299, "typical_volume": 231512.4, "trend": 5.114017, "fair_value": 12.319683, "relative_strength": -53.009082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.40175, "energy": 22.759459, "activity_lines": [ 4.002333, 3.921818, 4.018853, 4.373967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.195, "volume": 175413, "typical_volume": 227026.7, "trend": 4.947184, "fair_value": 12.229266, "relative_strength": -50.634117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.885117, "energy": 19.648452, "activity_lines": [ 4.066667, 3.985636, 4.013517, 4.314675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.22, "volume": 742836, "typical_volume": 255686.7, "trend": 4.832851, "fair_value": 12.15542, "relative_strength": -37.823448, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.667356, "energy": 20.077532, "activity_lines": [ 4.460333, 4.227182, 4.111253, 4.332276 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }