{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ffc28f9-5dfe-41b8-a124-13186e43de54", "symbol": "EXPD", "name": "Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.204, "architecture_energy": 66.741, "architecture_maturity": 35.068, "architecture_confidence": 80.783, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.1, "rotation_up": 72.27, "upward_expansion": 87.73, "deceleration": 48.78, "rotation_down": 14.5, "downward_expansion": 12.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.242, 172.193455, 165.625196, 160.93681 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 178.71, "trend_reference": 156.990426, "distance_from_trend": 0.13835, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 125.757291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421071, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.208745, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088309, "excess_performance": -0.037316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13835, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421071, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137511, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092087, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.417358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8481435, "relative_activity": 1.464011, "balance": 1.417358, "dry_up": 1.202512, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050115, "annualized_volatility": 0.315726, "from_high_reference": -0.048073, "from_low_reference": 0.598645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.990426, "fair_value_reference": 125.757291, "structural_low": 128.937377, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.002292, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.010646, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.133152, "worst_return": -0.111502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01385, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.044812, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.193218, "worst_return": -0.212986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027899, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064322, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.30913, "worst_return": -0.236292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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153.925709, "fair_value": 124.290096, "relative_strength": 9.756405, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.409609, "energy": 66.988483, "activity_lines": [ 166.788667, 163.861605, 157.74475, 155.531719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 182.8, "volume": 8404585, "typical_volume": 5888590.65, "trend": 154.949038, "fair_value": 124.689644, "relative_strength": 17.724023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.970012, "energy": 85.981225, "activity_lines": [ 172.504667, 167.74989, 160.583812, 157.394576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 175.3, "volume": 5780368, "typical_volume": 5808978.5, "trend": 155.743261, "fair_value": 125.025701, "relative_strength": 12.999098, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.150603, "energy": 81.378696, "activity_lines": [ 174.642, 169.785465, 162.525253, 158.707542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 167.89, "volume": 5199610, "typical_volume": 5649754.45, "trend": 156.303087, "fair_value": 125.3358, "relative_strength": 6.656328, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.617846, "energy": 67.51766, "activity_lines": [ 173.377333, 170.098625, 163.622029, 159.491202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.71, "volume": 8481435, "typical_volume": 5793288.35, "trend": 156.990426, "fair_value": 125.757291, "relative_strength": 9.208745, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.204454, "energy": 66.741159, "activity_lines": [ 175.242, 172.193455, 165.625196, 160.93681 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }