{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ffc2a99-32da-410b-83ae-9bfefab1c743", "symbol": "CN50", "name": "Invesco ChiNext 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.285, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.761, "architecture_energy": 39.124, "architecture_maturity": 57.973, "architecture_confidence": 59.634, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.03, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 17.87, "deceleration": 72.69, "rotation_down": 66.54, "downward_expansion": 42.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.815333, 10.435291, 10.681529, 10.419654 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.098, "trend_reference": 10.0369, "distance_from_trend": 0.006088, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.096362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.422983, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.97344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129783, "excess_performance": -0.041109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.422983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129783, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.004121, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284186, "relative_activity": 4.573094, "balance": 2.004121, "dry_up": 2.290683, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079681, "annualized_volatility": 0.379328, "from_high_reference": -0.179291, "from_low_reference": 0.705455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.0369, "fair_value_reference": 7.096362, "structural_low": 8.631, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.17531, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.117863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17531, "worst_return": 0.17531, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.335246, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.177569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335246, "worst_return": 0.335246, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.044786, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032093, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-12", "close": 4.2245, "volume": 1180, 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10.96469, 10.488869 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.619, "volume": 115974, "typical_volume": 41489.55, "trend": 9.941333, "fair_value": 7.022335, "relative_strength": -5.061758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.080644, "energy": 16.775098, "activity_lines": [ 10.9602, 11.217964, 10.890748, 10.471052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.784, "volume": 117520, "typical_volume": 46640.05, "trend": 9.987333, "fair_value": 7.048145, "relative_strength": -3.75953, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.543541, "energy": 22.663751, "activity_lines": [ 10.4252, 10.942745, 10.83079, 10.460901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.254, "volume": 51720, "typical_volume": 48563.55, "trend": 10.004, "fair_value": 7.068569, "relative_strength": -9.906783, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.026954, "energy": 44.662027, "activity_lines": [ 9.877933, 10.594109, 10.716171, 10.413589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.098, "volume": 284186, "typical_volume": 62143.05, "trend": 10.0369, "fair_value": 7.096362, "relative_strength": -4.97344, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.761309, "energy": 39.124426, "activity_lines": [ 9.815333, 10.435291, 10.681529, 10.419654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }