{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0094178-abdc-4719-a288-a267a7507dd9", "symbol": "CSU", "name": "Constellation Software Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.954, "architecture_energy": 62.675, "architecture_maturity": 18.666, "architecture_confidence": 75.228, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.74, "rotation_up": 58.88, "upward_expansion": 81.27, "deceleration": 52.73, "rotation_down": 17.57, "downward_expansion": 14.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 2968.356022, 2898.762553, 2810.229745, 2736.077354 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3221.600098, "trend_reference": 2666.167066, "distance_from_trend": 0.208326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3745.038789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139769, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.852436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.324341, "excess_performance": 0.20392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208326, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052809, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139769, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098524, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.291113, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.324341, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.69964, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 291600, "relative_activity": 1.202598, "balance": 1.69964, "dry_up": 1.256934, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069475, "annualized_volatility": 0.490481, "from_high_reference": -0.344731, "from_low_reference": 0.467883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2666.167066, "fair_value_reference": 3745.038789, "structural_low": 2194.724742, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.016548, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.011042, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.112327, "worst_return": -0.110148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.069957, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.034093, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.192451, "worst_return": -0.063144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.143159, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.066992, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.295267, 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"typical_volume": 254455.0, "trend": 2677.347673, "fair_value": 3739.937547, "relative_strength": -25.646556, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.37705, "energy": 16.780845, "activity_lines": [ 2758.385319, 2793.928995, 2723.244757, 2679.451459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3002.98999, "volume": 369700, "typical_volume": 244610.0, "trend": 2669.54104, "fair_value": 3742.020181, "relative_strength": -14.50208, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.033383, "energy": 31.991488, "activity_lines": [ 2833.101318, 2829.044021, 2757.470997, 2700.46064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3221.600098, "volume": 291600, "typical_volume": 242475.0, "trend": 2666.167066, "fair_value": 3745.038789, "relative_strength": -9.852436, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.954285, "energy": 62.675009, "activity_lines": [ 2968.356022, 2898.762553, 2810.229745, 2736.077354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }