{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a00b1058-cb3b-4f05-ab61-6e425f48b5df", "symbol": "MACU", "name": "iShares Conservative Portfolio UCITS ETF USD Hedged (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.393, "architecture_energy": 33.406, "architecture_maturity": 60.101, "architecture_confidence": 71.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.78, "rotation_up": 25.69, "upward_expansion": 61.88, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 27.99, "downward_expansion": 25.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.886113, 5.901953, 5.880775, 5.843614 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.879, "trend_reference": 5.799157, "distance_from_trend": 0.013768, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.348515, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.142676, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.026828, "excess_performance": -0.089835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013768, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016289, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099184, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.313126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.313126, "dry_up": 0.764915, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005133, "annualized_volatility": 0.05457, "from_high_reference": -0.011567, "from_low_reference": 0.081096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.799157, "fair_value_reference": 5.348515, "structural_low": 5.5669, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009727, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.026707, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.02081, "worst_return": -0.004424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023645, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.014948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029045, "worst_return": -0.002282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036219, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055248, "worst_return": 0.01719, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008337, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.052308, "active": false }, { "regime": 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5.778353, "fair_value": 5.328934, "relative_strength": -6.518544, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.268916, "energy": 76.948861, "activity_lines": [ 5.924627, 5.917475, 5.864562, 5.825698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.8783, "volume": 1134, "typical_volume": 4693.05, "trend": 5.786513, "fair_value": 5.335391, "relative_strength": -6.848303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.189827, "energy": 55.915093, "activity_lines": [ 5.907247, 5.913513, 5.870651, 5.832146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.879, "volume": 5320, "typical_volume": 4959.05, "trend": 5.79374, "fair_value": 5.341853, "relative_strength": -7.366639, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.111361, "energy": 42.514988, "activity_lines": [ 5.894473, 5.908385, 5.876079, 5.838113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.879, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4959.05, "trend": 5.799157, "fair_value": 5.348515, "relative_strength": -8.142676, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.393272, "energy": 33.405593, "activity_lines": [ 5.886113, 5.901953, 5.880775, 5.843614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }