{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a00ce9c4-3461-4f9b-9ef7-503d0cdefb24", "symbol": "AAKASH", "name": "Aakash Exploration Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.334, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.634, "architecture_energy": 12.44, "architecture_maturity": 21.529, "architecture_confidence": 87.897, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.71, "rotation_up": 25.05, "upward_expansion": 50.13, "deceleration": 91.33, "rotation_down": 22.24, "downward_expansion": 16.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.95, 9.007273, 8.953, 8.851419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.99, "trend_reference": 8.684667, "distance_from_trend": 0.035158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.652244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06861, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.982237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152564, "excess_performance": 0.196273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035158, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015236, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06861, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068465, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009822, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152564, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.422926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 379328, "relative_activity": 0.721198, "balance": 2.422926, "dry_up": 1.248411, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083512, "annualized_volatility": 0.423784, "from_high_reference": -0.329104, "from_low_reference": 0.246879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.684667, "fair_value_reference": 9.652244, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.079303, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.09383, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.320144, "worst_return": -0.178754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.313997, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.346899, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.941667, "worst_return": 0.011236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06235, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.541667, "worst_return": -0.137615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.18705, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.252496, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.096667, "worst_return": -0.676605, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.226679, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.167758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002022, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032751, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04729, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011236, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007848, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.85, "volume": 691047, "typical_volume": 837119.6, "trend": 6.366667, "fair_value": 14.297436, "relative_strength": -32.105833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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{ "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.96, "volume": 96127, "typical_volume": 1834276.55, "trend": 8.641333, "fair_value": 9.552885, "relative_strength": 0.929569, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.020137, "energy": 35.892125, "activity_lines": [ 9.193333, 9.168545, 8.89181, 8.762409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.84, "volume": 385124, "typical_volume": 1802058.05, "trend": 8.647, "fair_value": 9.572051, "relative_strength": 0.021902, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.541303, "energy": 22.116525, "activity_lines": [ 9.001333, 9.140182, 8.896, 8.775226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.95, "volume": 816591, "typical_volume": 1797870.0, "trend": 8.653, "fair_value": 9.591923, "relative_strength": 0.946482, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.781786, "energy": 20.564382, "activity_lines": [ 8.916667, 9.118909, 8.909571, 8.794774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.92, "volume": 819824, "typical_volume": 1146780.5, "trend": 8.661333, "fair_value": 9.611923, "relative_strength": 3.132226, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.243702, "energy": 17.215704, "activity_lines": [ 8.912, 9.076909, 8.917, 8.812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.95, "volume": 610758, "typical_volume": 576788.2, "trend": 8.667667, "fair_value": 9.631795, "relative_strength": 1.058466, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.079246, "energy": 15.322261, "activity_lines": [ 8.928, 9.038182, 8.931429, 8.830624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.99, "volume": 379328, "typical_volume": 525969.0, "trend": 8.684667, "fair_value": 9.652244, "relative_strength": 0.982237, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.633698, "energy": 12.440125, "activity_lines": [ 8.95, 9.007273, 8.953, 8.851419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }