{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a00d1039-9bd2-4644-b601-6e51efdc9e26",
    "symbol": "AGD",
    "name": "abrdn Global Dynamic Dividend Fund",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 63.837,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 52.998,
    "architecture_energy": 34.209,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.491,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.159,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.93,
        "rotation_up": 47.12,
        "upward_expansion": 75.51,
        "deceleration": 56.75,
        "rotation_down": 22.3,
        "downward_expansion": 6.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        12.125154,
        12.05972,
        12.049252,
        11.931353
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 12.22,
    "trend_reference": 11.850945,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.031141,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.16837,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332843,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.552858,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.029563,
    "excess_performance": -0.096062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031141,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032355,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.332843,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073096,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055529,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055196,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029563,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.76606,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 527271,
      "relative_activity": 0.947275,
      "balance": 0.76606,
      "dry_up": 1.30791,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031878,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.216047,
      "from_high_reference": -0.054311,
      "from_low_reference": 0.226413
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.850945,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.16837,
      "structural_low": 10.20991,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.008369,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003001,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.046595,
        "worst_return": -0.103477,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.023714,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013927,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.155328,
        "worst_return": -0.060234,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.026952,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028076,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.187645,
        "worst_return": -0.019793,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.131945,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038025,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.374307,
        "worst_return": -0.196911,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.009816,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041401,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028292,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.1315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014793,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": true
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 581076.65,
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 63.049382,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 556161.75,
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        "fair_value": 8.876213,
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 547356.4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "energy": 33.171009,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 535750.2,
        "trend": 11.657905,
        "fair_value": 8.973872,
        "relative_strength": -3.206212,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.180875,
        "energy": 20.885625,
        "activity_lines": [
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          11.817163
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 433737,
        "typical_volume": 529930.4,
        "trend": 11.699122,
        "fair_value": 9.005426,
        "relative_strength": -5.364307,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.544936,
        "energy": 18.850779,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 12.048704,
        "volume": 445138,
        "typical_volume": 522385.25,
        "trend": 11.742604,
        "fair_value": 9.037616,
        "relative_strength": -4.723699,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.425079,
        "energy": 17.773151,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 11.989302,
        "volume": 1482347,
        "typical_volume": 560603.7,
        "trend": 11.773738,
        "fair_value": 9.069121,
        "relative_strength": -3.690702,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.098989,
        "energy": 17.447331,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.956314,
          12.028638,
          11.948569,
          11.865516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 12.05,
        "volume": 384248,
        "typical_volume": 553749.95,
        "trend": 11.794958,
        "fair_value": 9.10078,
        "relative_strength": -2.61052,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.864949,
        "energy": 14.420223,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.987094,
          12.022733,
          11.976711,
          11.88334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 12.15,
        "volume": 518163,
        "typical_volume": 558439.2,
        "trend": 11.83083,
        "fair_value": 9.134492,
        "relative_strength": -2.86122,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.493304,
        "energy": 25.937955,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.055094,
          12.033324,
          12.011722,
          11.906246
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 12.22,
        "volume": 527271,
        "typical_volume": 556618.95,
        "trend": 11.850945,
        "fair_value": 9.16837,
        "relative_strength": -5.552858,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.998216,
        "energy": 34.208506,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.125154,
          12.05972,
          12.049252,
          11.931353
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}