{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a00e6e17-0582-4f1b-a0d7-1fe304c893c7", "symbol": "600793", "name": "Yibin Paper Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.012, "architecture_energy": 43.73, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.001, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.35, "rotation_up": 21.61, "upward_expansion": 5.52, "deceleration": 57.82, "rotation_down": 51.74, "downward_expansion": 76.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.562667, 13.769636, 14.397619, 15.457892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.24, "trend_reference": 17.005667, "distance_from_trend": -0.162632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.248013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.383333, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.325758, "excess_performance": -0.282554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123585, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153495, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.273833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.325758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.524452, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72744130, "relative_activity": 2.861346, "balance": 1.524452, "dry_up": 2.176661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13159, "annualized_volatility": 0.616607, "from_high_reference": -0.478006, "from_low_reference": 0.215017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.005667, "fair_value_reference": 16.248013, "structural_low": 11.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.010573, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.005225, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.186384, "worst_return": -0.179079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.018892, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.682955, "worst_return": -0.220273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.028971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07598, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.411157, "worst_return": -0.312419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.175439, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.559934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188995, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020792, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": 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18.101, "fair_value": 16.22391, "relative_strength": -22.240902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.1078, "energy": 40.0381, "activity_lines": [ 14.720667, 14.408546, 15.462333, 16.598215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.55, "volume": 55019578, "typical_volume": 19317302.8, "trend": 17.844333, "fair_value": 16.231987, "relative_strength": -30.894162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.587085, "energy": 35.084848, "activity_lines": [ 14.522667, 14.216364, 15.172524, 16.304602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.38, "volume": 37469589, "typical_volume": 20208329.25, "trend": 17.555333, "fair_value": 16.231538, "relative_strength": -36.553894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.222525, "energy": 34.532024, "activity_lines": [ 13.946, 13.866364, 14.805667, 15.952064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.89, "volume": 56116072, "typical_volume": 22477897.85, "trend": 17.234333, "fair_value": 16.235128, "relative_strength": -33.310343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.586652, "energy": 44.383794, "activity_lines": [ 13.567333, 13.674909, 14.522667, 15.651075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.24, "volume": 72744130, "typical_volume": 25423045.85, "trend": 17.005667, "fair_value": 16.248013, "relative_strength": -27.383333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.011636, "energy": 43.730406, "activity_lines": [ 13.562667, 13.769636, 14.397619, 15.457892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }