{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a00fa700-a5b7-4859-9de2-744bffcbdcfb", "symbol": "601231", "name": "Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.068, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.303, "architecture_energy": 79.748, "architecture_maturity": 21.094, "architecture_confidence": 81.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 8.93, "upward_expansion": 18.95, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 77.76, "downward_expansion": 94.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.123334, 27.716344, 32.155974, 33.853439 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.610001, "trend_reference": 35.112982, "distance_from_trend": -0.213681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.527393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.145951, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185065, "excess_performance": -0.141861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060014, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.870146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.587694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204384826, "relative_activity": 1.145945, "balance": 0.539381, "dry_up": 0.918899, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182282, "annualized_volatility": 0.824048, "from_high_reference": -0.440867, "from_low_reference": 0.791694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.112982, "fair_value_reference": 19.527393, "structural_low": 21.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.052207, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.046323, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.179372, "worst_return": -0.096854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059578, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.081463, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.424911, "worst_return": -0.068567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056483, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.059871, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.742075, "worst_return": -0.022326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 19.404714, "relative_strength": -14.151124, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.084468, "energy": 85.997979, "activity_lines": [ 26.825334, 30.702168, 34.144874, 35.212684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.969999, "volume": 141234474, "typical_volume": 179070430.55, "trend": 35.192649, "fair_value": 19.446985, "relative_strength": -21.871817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.312292, "energy": 89.226205, "activity_lines": [ 24.668667, 28.542168, 32.83821, 34.342642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.610001, "volume": 204384826, "typical_volume": 178354794.2, "trend": 35.112982, "fair_value": 19.527393, "relative_strength": -5.145951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.302993, "energy": 79.748024, "activity_lines": [ 25.123334, 27.716344, 32.155974, 33.853439 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }