{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a010ebfc-350b-4701-9f4d-4ef18ad65666", "symbol": "AP", "name": "Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.732, "architecture_energy": 12.675, "architecture_maturity": 13.21, "architecture_confidence": 42.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.04, "rotation_up": 23.17, "upward_expansion": 16.61, "deceleration": 59.72, "rotation_down": 44.26, "downward_expansion": 39.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.498667, 8.613636, 9.296238, 9.143828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.51, "trend_reference": 8.683333, "distance_from_trend": 0.095202, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.616956, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.629282, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 38.261943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.400589, "excess_performance": 0.274964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.271848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.629282, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.297536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.382619, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.976739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.400589, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 488924, "relative_activity": 0.574464, "balance": 0.462812, "dry_up": 0.724259, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200914, "annualized_volatility": 0.850538, "from_high_reference": -0.257611, "from_low_reference": 4.433044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.683333, "fair_value_reference": 3.616956, "structural_low": 5.3801, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030992, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048644, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.044053, "worst_return": -0.203579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.127109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.921488, "worst_return": -0.09396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.185185, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.380738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.834711, "worst_return": -0.355705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122581, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.962162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.326886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.320781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.290541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044586, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182836, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.14, "volume": 54348, "typical_volume": 85930.05, "trend": 3.040067, "fair_value": 4.691904, "relative_strength": -8.028021, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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10.004855, "energy": 10.198512, "activity_lines": [ 9.331333, 10.001455, 9.787476, 9.162559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.85, "volume": 1521561, "typical_volume": 1097336.1, "trend": 8.199, "fair_value": 3.496264, "relative_strength": 23.043538, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.997167, "energy": 16.156975, "activity_lines": [ 8.675333, 9.536182, 9.642667, 9.149118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.66, "volume": 790136, "typical_volume": 1058752.3, "trend": 8.318, "fair_value": 3.520751, "relative_strength": 20.558034, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.773179, "energy": 30.17347, "activity_lines": [ 8.083333, 9.084, 9.484571, 9.114344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.2, "volume": 648896, "typical_volume": 1042764.6, "trend": 8.436333, "fair_value": 3.549521, "relative_strength": 28.246694, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.267989, "energy": 30.683573, "activity_lines": [ 7.949333, 8.812545, 9.38481, 9.106731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.04, "volume": 537696, "typical_volume": 997623.2, "trend": 8.538667, "fair_value": 3.576187, "relative_strength": 22.819187, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.163812, "energy": 37.243947, "activity_lines": [ 7.935333, 8.560182, 9.270048, 9.081161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.51, "volume": 488924, "typical_volume": 851095.25, "trend": 8.683333, "fair_value": 3.616956, "relative_strength": 38.261943, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.731695, "energy": 12.674573, "activity_lines": [ 8.498667, 8.613636, 9.296238, 9.143828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }