{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a01b5ba1-24b7-465d-8583-cdaebee1abae", "symbol": "EXVM", "name": "iShares eb.rexxGovernment Germany 0-1yr UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.058, "architecture_energy": 82.278, "architecture_maturity": 16.342, "architecture_confidence": 69.199, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.23, "rotation_up": 78.62, "upward_expansion": 96.66, "deceleration": 39.29, "rotation_down": 12.66, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.722668, 76.673455, 76.595476, 76.536547 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 76.779999, "trend_reference": 76.453279, "distance_from_trend": 0.004273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 74.511659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.834343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00714, "excess_performance": -0.163752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004273, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002495, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030443, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003506, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0223, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00714, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.04398, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4583, "relative_activity": 1.281098, "balance": 3.04398, "dry_up": 1.223165, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001423, "annualized_volatility": 0.006385, "from_high_reference": -0.001561, "from_low_reference": 0.015121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.453279, "fair_value_reference": 74.511659, "structural_low": 76.040001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.001865, "positive_rate": 0.953488, "directional_follow_through": 0.953488, "median_excess_return": -0.010816, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00406, "worst_return": -0.000915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0061, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038426, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.00925, "worst_return": 0.003074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.012008, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061201, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.018353, "worst_return": 0.007163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 2941, "typical_volume": 3385.9, "trend": 76.413671, "fair_value": 74.441889, "relative_strength": -11.584202, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.911468, "energy": 58.71237, "activity_lines": [ 76.657334, 76.611091, 76.547571, 76.493782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.730003, "volume": 4931, "typical_volume": 3435.45, "trend": 76.433473, "fair_value": 74.47677, "relative_strength": -11.738927, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.964829, "energy": 57.590755, "activity_lines": [ 76.686002, 76.640364, 76.570048, 76.514191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.779999, "volume": 4583, "typical_volume": 3577.4, "trend": 76.453279, "fair_value": 74.511659, "relative_strength": -13.834343, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.058095, "energy": 82.278046, "activity_lines": [ 76.722668, 76.673455, 76.595476, 76.536547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }