{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a01ce9bf-adcc-4843-bd39-a2d03a96f881", "symbol": "002205", "name": "XinJiang GuoTong Pipeline CO.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.844, "architecture_energy": 61.556, "architecture_maturity": 58.147, "architecture_confidence": 89.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 17.86, "upward_expansion": 10.85, "deceleration": 55.45, "rotation_down": 65.0, "downward_expansion": 84.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.846, 10.102727, 11.16181, 11.810151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.29, "trend_reference": 12.622667, "distance_from_trend": -0.1848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.420192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.419995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268137, "excess_performance": -0.275536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095517, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012494, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122486, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268137, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.423862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12249824, "relative_activity": 0.958849, "balance": 0.423862, "dry_up": 1.080461, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095986, "annualized_volatility": 0.336443, "from_high_reference": -0.456705, "from_low_reference": 0.189595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.622667, "fair_value_reference": 10.420192, "structural_low": 8.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.022785, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.001421, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.155949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014902, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045193, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.426332, "worst_return": -0.201394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.013898, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.074809, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.412226, "worst_return": -0.192405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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12.875333, "fair_value": 10.425897, "relative_strength": -32.502793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.622955, "energy": 88.089046, "activity_lines": [ 9.746667, 10.436182, 11.548667, 12.164624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.83, "volume": 10990060, "typical_volume": 12897823.65, "trend": 12.739, "fair_value": 10.422821, "relative_strength": -25.599747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.12723, "energy": 70.619722, "activity_lines": [ 9.708, 10.190182, 11.323714, 11.968151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.29, "volume": 12249824, "typical_volume": 12775548.75, "trend": 12.622667, "fair_value": 10.420192, "relative_strength": -25.419995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.843716, "energy": 61.555736, "activity_lines": [ 9.846, 10.102727, 11.16181, 11.810151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }