{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0207194-0308-4393-abba-e58f96562fc5", "symbol": "002229", "name": "Hongbo Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.595, "architecture_energy": 62.214, "architecture_maturity": 45.95, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 25.5, "upward_expansion": 11.79, "deceleration": 49.77, "rotation_down": 56.63, "downward_expansion": 85.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.076667, 10.358364, 12.286714, 13.573785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.58, "trend_reference": 14.89, "distance_from_trend": -0.289456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.252051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.420339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.237427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318738, "excess_performance": -0.326138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104666, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.420339, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229258, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318738, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194674584, "relative_activity": 0.962946, "balance": 0.411072, "dry_up": 0.806159, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152901, "annualized_volatility": 0.617313, "from_high_reference": -0.559167, "from_low_reference": 0.235981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.89, "fair_value_reference": 18.252051, "structural_low": 8.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.024212, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.025162, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.522514, "worst_return": -0.351004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066436, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.01576, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.833959, "worst_return": -0.5771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001716, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043157, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.545966, "worst_return": -0.635971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 155935162, "typical_volume": 217413208.6, "trend": 15.236, "fair_value": 18.487051, "relative_strength": -41.703287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.165589, "energy": 86.781448, "activity_lines": [ 9.694, 10.740727, 13.074286, 14.180774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.3, "volume": 170754529, "typical_volume": 206442526.25, "trend": 15.052333, "fair_value": 18.363013, "relative_strength": -35.567498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.924728, "energy": 77.148825, "activity_lines": [ 9.844, 10.478545, 12.651619, 13.862322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.58, "volume": 194674584, "typical_volume": 202165539.1, "trend": 14.89, "fair_value": 18.252051, "relative_strength": -36.237427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.594733, "energy": 62.21446, "activity_lines": [ 10.076667, 10.358364, 12.286714, 13.573785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }