{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a025fbe9-7821-4e92-9b53-c55281767043", "symbol": "000868", "name": "Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.309, "architecture_energy": 48.359, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 70.03, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 47.62, "downward_expansion": 72.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.506667, 3.491455, 3.713143, 3.932882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.58, "trend_reference": 4.239333, "distance_from_trend": -0.155528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.052692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.291467, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.826574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.263374, "excess_performance": -0.270774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.291467, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153112, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278266, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.263374, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.179674, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42739341, "relative_activity": 1.026745, "balance": 0.179674, "dry_up": 1.316323, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 8 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071551, "annualized_volatility": 0.268891, "from_high_reference": -0.410214, "from_low_reference": 0.094801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.239333, "fair_value_reference": 5.052692, "structural_low": 3.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.025632, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008168, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.140678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.055675, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.091131, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.14059, "worst_return": -0.239374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.075386, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029825, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154525, "worst_return": -0.331325, "sufficient": true }, 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"typical_volume": 41497825.85, "trend": 4.330667, "fair_value": 5.076667, "relative_strength": -32.095841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.576368, "energy": 68.087315, "activity_lines": [ 3.376667, 3.484364, 3.789429, 4.023634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.63, "volume": 55051069, "typical_volume": 42125188.25, "trend": 4.286, "fair_value": 5.064551, "relative_strength": -24.054082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.541991, "energy": 61.312874, "activity_lines": [ 3.46, 3.488, 3.751238, 3.97843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.58, "volume": 42739341, "typical_volume": 41626036.1, "trend": 4.239333, "fair_value": 5.052692, "relative_strength": -27.826574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.309152, "energy": 48.358834, "activity_lines": [ 3.506667, 3.491455, 3.713143, 3.932882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }