{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a026dfcc-f2db-40e1-a9a3-324bd09fb3d3", "symbol": "IVW", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.179, "architecture_energy": 36.347, "architecture_maturity": 36.419, "architecture_confidence": 91.518, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.09, "rotation_up": 40.61, "upward_expansion": 66.52, "deceleration": 88.72, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 13.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2354.596696, 2349.733039, 2331.931356, 2281.014278 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2432.0, "trend_reference": 2221.81475, "distance_from_trend": 0.094601, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1858.717216, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308429, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.203225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.167979, "excess_performance": 0.222646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094601, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016531, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308429, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072032, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106592, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167979, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.536922, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6719, "relative_activity": 0.395624, "balance": 3.536922, "dry_up": 0.224147, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036494, "annualized_volatility": 0.240583, "from_high_reference": -0.017088, "from_low_reference": 0.248351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2221.81475, "fair_value_reference": 1858.717216, "structural_low": 1948.170044, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01894, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.073003, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.075641, "worst_return": -0.025006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053676, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026734, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.210207, "worst_return": -0.103017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.120586, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.075639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.370824, "worst_return": -0.068463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2309.570068, "volume": 3597, "typical_volume": 25166.35, "trend": 2213.156449, "fair_value": 1844.132977, "relative_strength": 2.499339, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.049705, "energy": 33.45237, "activity_lines": [ 2340.308073, 2344.042547, 2311.595025, 2261.74718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2294.5, "volume": 2455, "typical_volume": 17936.65, "trend": 2214.70352, "fair_value": 1851.126778, "relative_strength": 1.126607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.089125, "energy": 24.881314, "activity_lines": [ 2324.350049, 2334.304141, 2315.668642, 2266.995151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2432.0, "volume": 6719, "typical_volume": 16983.3, "trend": 2221.81475, "fair_value": 1858.717216, "relative_strength": 7.203225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.178857, "energy": 36.346844, "activity_lines": [ 2354.596696, 2349.733039, 2331.931356, 2281.014278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }