{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a028ebdd-b551-460e-975c-a71fba1c21e3", "symbol": "AWK", "name": "Fuxing China Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.461, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -5.863, "architecture_energy": 22.446, "architecture_maturity": 61.948, "architecture_confidence": 76.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.33, "rotation_up": 19.37, "upward_expansion": 51.18, "deceleration": 82.3, "rotation_down": 41.67, "downward_expansion": 26.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.858333, 0.900727, 0.905735, 0.860135 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.8, "trend_reference": 0.790633, "distance_from_trend": 0.011847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.393591, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.032565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.635453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.598612, "excess_performance": 0.443777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.239443, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.032565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106355, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.761052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.598612, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.326895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4900, "relative_activity": 0.14292, "balance": 1.326895, "dry_up": 0.402508, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092039, "annualized_volatility": 0.519968, "from_high_reference": -0.19598, "from_low_reference": 2.579498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.790633, "fair_value_reference": 0.393591, "structural_low": 0.490717, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019316, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.018774, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.823527, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.103175, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.057905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.07843, "worst_return": -0.373133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.151059, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.163565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.705882, "worst_return": -0.405969, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.313432, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.528639, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.181818, "worst_return": -0.603175, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.402986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119998, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.181822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.304347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.395146, "energy": 65.320644, "activity_lines": [ 0.966, 0.959935, 0.886233, 0.817942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.995, "volume": 82000, "typical_volume": 47375.0, "trend": 0.744634, "fair_value": 0.380136, "relative_strength": 51.894841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.936753, "energy": 55.945519, "activity_lines": [ 0.973667, 0.969552, 0.903048, 0.835336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9, "volume": 13500, "typical_volume": 34705.0, "trend": 0.758601, "fair_value": 0.38385, "relative_strength": 34.023973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.834298, "energy": 36.847061, "activity_lines": [ 0.949333, 0.959706, 0.908761, 0.84536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.88, "volume": 8100, "typical_volume": 34860.0, "trend": 0.770443, "fair_value": 0.387311, "relative_strength": 27.089403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.564933, "energy": 31.406226, "activity_lines": [ 0.924333, 0.945761, 0.911662, 0.853192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.86, "volume": 28700, "typical_volume": 36295.0, "trend": 0.781943, "fair_value": 0.390643, "relative_strength": 21.753675, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.512777, "energy": 23.343447, "activity_lines": [ 0.9, 0.927727, 0.911891, 0.85897 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8, "volume": 4900, "typical_volume": 34285.0, "trend": 0.790633, "fair_value": 0.393591, "relative_strength": 10.635453, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.863287, "energy": 22.445661, "activity_lines": [ 0.858333, 0.900727, 0.905735, 0.860135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }