{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0290b70-4c6b-4204-baa8-757dd3cf006a", "symbol": "RIO", "name": "Amundi MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.595, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.331, "architecture_energy": 20.611, "architecture_maturity": 22.432, "architecture_confidence": 53.572, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.21, "rotation_up": 40.21, "upward_expansion": 28.16, "deceleration": 36.46, "rotation_down": 23.55, "downward_expansion": 48.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.441333, 25.202564, 25.304105, 25.480682 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.934999, "trend_reference": 25.5306, "distance_from_trend": -0.023329, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.682245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.753187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019118, "excess_performance": -0.072429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007532, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.968883, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75200, "relative_activity": 1.078162, "balance": 0.968883, "dry_up": 1.0826, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03656, "annualized_volatility": 0.214199, "from_high_reference": -0.126895, "from_low_reference": 0.3672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.5306, "fair_value_reference": 20.682245, "structural_low": 23.809999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023928, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018565, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.100395, "worst_return": -0.107249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.066513, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.085969, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.189021, "worst_return": -0.094421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0619, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.136173, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.141184, "worst_return": -0.086613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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24.6602, 25.3943, 25.39151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.610001, "volume": 91600, "typical_volume": 79928.5, "trend": 25.064933, "fair_value": 20.545059, "relative_strength": 8.441681, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.878824, "energy": 12.90734, "activity_lines": [ 24.9356, 24.761727, 25.384391, 25.434914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.1, "volume": 88746, "typical_volume": 76953.1, "trend": 25.186667, "fair_value": 20.576642, "relative_strength": 5.786277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.955324, "energy": 13.208693, "activity_lines": [ 25.068667, 24.795473, 25.329986, 25.437176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.725, "volume": 42105, "typical_volume": 71844.1, "trend": 25.326933, "fair_value": 20.61011, "relative_strength": 7.4051, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.118096, "energy": 17.558294, "activity_lines": [ 25.359, 24.974436, 25.341481, 25.471908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.99, "volume": 95987, "typical_volume": 70785.95, "trend": 25.462067, "fair_value": 20.648129, "relative_strength": 6.273606, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.559528, "energy": 24.629611, "activity_lines": [ 25.618667, 25.191727, 25.375124, 25.514686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.934999, "volume": 75200, "typical_volume": 69748.3, "trend": 25.5306, "fair_value": 20.682245, "relative_strength": -0.753187, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.331316, "energy": 20.610572, "activity_lines": [ 25.441333, 25.202564, 25.304105, 25.480682 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }