{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a02e6e27-a59d-4ac8-8caa-56e4f05d2cbd", "symbol": "MTN", "name": "Vail Resorts, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.781, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.287, "architecture_energy": 26.172, "architecture_maturity": 81.478, "architecture_confidence": 42.058, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.86, "rotation_up": 25.99, "upward_expansion": 37.5, "deceleration": 47.9, "rotation_down": 18.53, "downward_expansion": 50.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2319.639893, 2315.321221, 2274.225448, 2334.141726 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2319.639893, "trend_reference": 2456.495004, "distance_from_trend": -0.055712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3212.953047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.278035, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.376134, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.191825, "excess_performance": -0.137159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.278035, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100909, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191825, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010101, "annualized_volatility": 0.351543, "from_high_reference": -0.236296, "from_low_reference": 0.110939 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2456.495004, "fair_value_reference": 3212.953047, "structural_low": 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"energy": 43.334934, "activity_lines": [ 2317.053593, 2297.742231, 2269.954089, 2367.729314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2319.639893, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 449.0, "trend": 2493.200407, "fair_value": 3235.388384, "relative_strength": -14.916243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.332287, "energy": 28.714408, "activity_lines": [ 2319.639893, 2307.136362, 2268.756061, 2355.352586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2319.639893, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 449.0, "trend": 2474.847706, "fair_value": 3224.170715, "relative_strength": -14.926486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.206489, "energy": 24.125968, "activity_lines": [ 2319.639893, 2312.996026, 2270.179847, 2344.155133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2319.639893, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 449.0, "trend": 2456.495004, "fair_value": 3212.953047, "relative_strength": -14.376134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.286733, "energy": 26.172379, "activity_lines": [ 2319.639893, 2315.321221, 2274.225448, 2334.141726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }