{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a03a1724-9347-47f5-9caa-1f9efca9a215", "symbol": "CIBUS", "name": "Cibus Nordic Real Estate AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.395, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.061, "architecture_energy": 53.89, "architecture_maturity": 8.452, "architecture_confidence": 91.486, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.54, "rotation_up": 12.44, "upward_expansion": 10.99, "deceleration": 39.49, "rotation_down": 62.58, "downward_expansion": 84.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.622462, 144.549487, 146.664949, 147.207074 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 143.850006, "trend_reference": 148.398305, "distance_from_trend": -0.030649, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.563671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050894, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.250155, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076646, "excess_performance": -0.138141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019498, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172502, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001707, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.684816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1052840, "relative_activity": 0.977934, "balance": 0.684816, "dry_up": 1.127165, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032821, "annualized_volatility": 0.197798, "from_high_reference": -0.176988, "from_low_reference": 0.070289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.398305, "fair_value_reference": 151.563671, "structural_low": 134.402901, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.022195, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.007667, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.113871, "worst_return": -0.173566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054864, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.08898, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.18991, "worst_return": -0.188262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.106795, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.231407, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.180343, "worst_return": -0.381938, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -15.709795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.802918, "energy": 50.782047, "activity_lines": [ 144.175186, 145.654598, 147.322656, 147.834717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 143.75, "volume": 1266103, "typical_volume": 1099312.95, "trend": 148.650961, "fair_value": 151.380695, "relative_strength": -16.357744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.103525, "energy": 54.162721, "activity_lines": [ 143.825925, 144.991167, 146.994534, 147.516813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.850006, "volume": 1052840, "typical_volume": 1076595.95, "trend": 148.398305, "fair_value": 151.563671, "relative_strength": -17.250155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.060827, "energy": 53.890129, "activity_lines": [ 143.622462, 144.549487, 146.664949, 147.207074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }