{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a03dcd12-f112-408d-8168-237659b9ff53", "symbol": "688128", "name": "China National Electric Apparatus Research Institute Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.907, "architecture_energy": 63.187, "architecture_maturity": 50.022, "architecture_confidence": 81.422, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 12.49, "upward_expansion": 12.17, "deceleration": 42.48, "rotation_down": 68.81, "downward_expansion": 85.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.023333, 22.756724, 24.000268, 24.921647 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.469999, "trend_reference": 26.44396, "distance_from_trend": -0.150279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.272761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.341354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.254295, "excess_performance": -0.211091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067381, "read": "Falling" 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20.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.024059, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.009617, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.275601, "worst_return": -0.18705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008247, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.043503, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.346019, "worst_return": -0.269338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043845, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.429203, "worst_return": -0.104066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 22.843334, 23.990141, 24.913029, 25.860232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.360001, "volume": 13800701, "typical_volume": 11218358.3, "trend": 26.889404, "fair_value": 22.267417, "relative_strength": -20.38943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.148851, "energy": 80.809666, "activity_lines": [ 22.080667, 23.362252, 24.507854, 25.487808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 11921552, "typical_volume": 11307773.1, "trend": 26.656082, "fair_value": 22.266113, "relative_strength": -16.993507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.345377, "energy": 75.551959, "activity_lines": [ 21.992, 23.002518, 24.230013, 25.191717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.469999, "volume": 11151762, "typical_volume": 11405169.0, "trend": 26.44396, "fair_value": 22.272761, "relative_strength": -18.341354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.906723, "energy": 63.187192, "activity_lines": [ 22.023333, 22.756724, 24.000268, 24.921647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }