{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0498418-79f4-4551-968e-4dc63ea6907b", "symbol": "WVVIP", "name": "Willamette Valley Vineyards Inc PR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.26, "architecture_energy": 17.322, "architecture_maturity": 73.506, "architecture_confidence": 62.562, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.55, "rotation_up": 30.67, "upward_expansion": 27.37, "deceleration": 46.43, "rotation_down": 27.59, "downward_expansion": 47.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.71668, 2.695575, 2.683093, 2.748442 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.52, "trend_reference": 2.84246, "distance_from_trend": -0.113444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.282139, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.232208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.254344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17377, "excess_performance": -0.361224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049814, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.232208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462315, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71665, "relative_activity": 5.669969, "balance": 0.462315, "dry_up": 2.066574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083263, "annualized_volatility": 0.38906, "from_high_reference": -0.277937, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.84246, "fair_value_reference": 3.282139, "structural_low": 2.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.001538, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.049196, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.101397, "worst_return": -0.068584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.035398, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.091178, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.118443, "worst_return": -0.126437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028984, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.137781, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073749, "worst_return": -0.097852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.268853, "energy": 71.996436, "activity_lines": [ 2.504413, 2.564913, 2.705849, 2.802616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.7818, "volume": 4309, "typical_volume": 33285.65, "trend": 2.902643, "fair_value": 3.321088, "relative_strength": -18.751229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.747404, "energy": 37.839899, "activity_lines": [ 2.59836, 2.592335, 2.701069, 2.793818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.7672, "volume": 6698, "typical_volume": 32784.45, "trend": 2.89155, "fair_value": 3.313668, "relative_strength": -20.154374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.951276, "energy": 23.235832, "activity_lines": [ 2.66732, 2.618342, 2.696175, 2.785079 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.759, "volume": 9642, "typical_volume": 30588.75, "trend": 2.882183, "fair_value": 3.305499, "relative_strength": -16.439359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.80074, "energy": 23.564767, "activity_lines": [ 2.715907, 2.643, 2.6918, 2.776528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.775, "volume": 14379, "typical_volume": 11066.75, "trend": 2.871183, "fair_value": 3.297698, "relative_strength": -14.172274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.499215, "energy": 24.428882, "activity_lines": [ 2.75256, 2.671313, 2.692287, 2.769613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.885, "volume": 8795, "typical_volume": 11094.25, "trend": 2.86196, "fair_value": 3.290818, "relative_strength": -10.762108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.434717, "energy": 17.513597, "activity_lines": [ 2.80788, 2.718625, 2.704559, 2.770504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.52, "volume": 71665, "typical_volume": 12639.4, "trend": 2.84246, "fair_value": 3.282139, "relative_strength": -25.254344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.259747, "energy": 17.322102, "activity_lines": [ 2.71668, 2.695575, 2.683093, 2.748442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }