{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a052e2df-9a8e-4e08-accd-f68d65f466d2", "symbol": "601106", "name": "China First Heavy Industries", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.649, "architecture_energy": 64.933, "architecture_maturity": 49.812, "architecture_confidence": 95.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 23.67, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.29, "rotation_down": 60.31, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.038667, 3.118727, 3.447952, 3.739247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.17, "trend_reference": 4.177, "distance_from_trend": -0.241082, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.114103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.28277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.380859, "excess_performance": -0.337656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241082, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01795, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.471748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334441, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.380859, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489366, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424087611, "relative_activity": 1.4442, "balance": 0.489366, "dry_up": 1.278417, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089784, "annualized_volatility": 0.346835, "from_high_reference": -0.519697, "from_low_reference": 0.144404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.177, "fair_value_reference": 3.114103, "structural_low": 2.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00559, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.010124, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.126087, "worst_return": -0.115502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028808, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008714, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137405, "worst_return": -0.134831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003236, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.026332, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.225191, "worst_return": -0.135922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"fair_value": 3.121667, "relative_strength": -19.606096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.361445, "energy": 91.851031, "activity_lines": [ 3.257333, 3.464909, 3.802381, 4.065849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.79, "volume": 366862605, "typical_volume": 311517109.5, "trend": 4.270667, "fair_value": 3.118013, "relative_strength": -22.052509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.041907, "energy": 92.518015, "activity_lines": [ 3.077333, 3.300545, 3.679571, 3.967957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.91, "volume": 361218919, "typical_volume": 294096549.85, "trend": 4.24, "fair_value": 3.115513, "relative_strength": -19.709907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.394983, "energy": 83.622523, "activity_lines": [ 2.985333, 3.191455, 3.579429, 3.880172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 349453801, "typical_volume": 290461509.45, "trend": 4.204333, "fair_value": 3.114423, "relative_strength": -15.105989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.890082, "energy": 72.835522, "activity_lines": [ 2.992, 3.14, 3.505952, 3.805978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.17, "volume": 424087611, "typical_volume": 293648804.3, "trend": 4.177, "fair_value": 3.114103, "relative_strength": -15.28277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.648895, "energy": 64.93267, "activity_lines": [ 3.038667, 3.118727, 3.447952, 3.739247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }