{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a055b972-14e3-4b90-ba72-86850fe4dde3", "symbol": "300849", "name": "Zhejiang Jinsheng New Materials Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.895, "architecture_energy": 25.208, "architecture_maturity": 8.162, "architecture_confidence": 44.389, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.9, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 23.41, "deceleration": 50.46, "rotation_down": 56.65, "downward_expansion": 41.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.971333, 20.918182, 21.760809, 21.588925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.66, "trend_reference": 21.039333, "distance_from_trend": 0.07703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.91859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.51891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.384194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.22885, "excess_performance": 0.221451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104041, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.51891, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.213842, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.22885, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.336474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18674305, "relative_activity": 1.433123, "balance": 0.336474, "dry_up": 1.083597, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139758, "annualized_volatility": 0.67855, "from_high_reference": -0.15668, "from_low_reference": 0.830372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.039333, "fair_value_reference": 14.91859, "structural_low": 15.88, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.075337, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.025728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188751, "worst_return": -0.012422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.187153, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.06011, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309819, "worst_return": -0.000887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.299333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.24077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533703, "worst_return": -0.024845, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108815, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.663617, "energy": 26.174888, "activity_lines": [ 20.324, 21.46, 22.018381, 21.641613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.059999, "volume": 8758350, "typical_volume": 12671761.8, "trend": 20.805, "fair_value": 14.846923, "relative_strength": 2.54522, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.429516, "energy": 43.39178, "activity_lines": [ 19.225999, 20.711273, 21.664095, 21.469247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.66, "volume": 18674305, "typical_volume": 13030494.55, "trend": 21.039333, "fair_value": 14.91859, "relative_strength": 21.384194, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.894676, "energy": 25.20758, "activity_lines": [ 19.971333, 20.918182, 21.760809, 21.588925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }