{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0663254-8ec7-44f2-8e4c-b94819585eed", "symbol": "CHP-UN", "name": "Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.943, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.909, "architecture_energy": 19.04, "architecture_maturity": 51.797, "architecture_confidence": 74.366, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.34, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 54.62, "deceleration": 90.81, "rotation_down": 34.75, "downward_expansion": 20.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.914223, 16.091133, 15.942508, 15.800292 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.66, "trend_reference": 15.625854, "distance_from_trend": 0.002185, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.383672, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.75699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.015555, "excess_performance": -0.104866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002185, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015555, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78191, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3348200, "relative_activity": 1.335453, "balance": 0.78191, "dry_up": 1.43046, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0308, "annualized_volatility": 0.137747, "from_high_reference": -0.060112, "from_low_reference": 0.159796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.625854, "fair_value_reference": 13.383672, "structural_low": 14.766395, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.017598, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.023422, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.053626, "worst_return": -0.058494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003049, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017414, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.147907, "worst_return": -0.098312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039052, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102762, "worst_return": -0.090271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077966, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.013062, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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-1.493744, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.824396, "energy": 70.438675, "activity_lines": [ 16.399431, 16.174784, 15.851507, 15.693001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.303038, "volume": 3222400, "typical_volume": 2217885.0, "trend": 15.509985, "fair_value": 13.305229, "relative_strength": -1.588294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.797047, "energy": 59.605933, "activity_lines": [ 16.37554, 16.240838, 15.912355, 15.748168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.864837, "volume": 2901400, "typical_volume": 2285265.0, "trend": 15.560022, "fair_value": 13.331006, "relative_strength": -4.311318, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.452501, "energy": 34.749797, "activity_lines": [ 16.205088, 16.210179, 15.928409, 15.771062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.96, "volume": 4873600, "typical_volume": 2440345.0, "trend": 15.606916, "fair_value": 13.357998, "relative_strength": -3.147166, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.593299, "energy": 23.758716, "activity_lines": [ 16.093084, 16.181256, 15.951046, 15.796867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.66, "volume": 3348200, "typical_volume": 2507165.0, "trend": 15.625854, "fair_value": 13.383672, "relative_strength": -7.75699, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.909237, "energy": 19.039683, "activity_lines": [ 15.914223, 16.091133, 15.942508, 15.800292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }