{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a06a47dc-cef9-40af-95b1-4838d4464118", "symbol": "I500", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.288, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.313, "architecture_energy": 60.756, "architecture_maturity": 65.749, "architecture_confidence": 66.724, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.04, "rotation_up": 53.07, "upward_expansion": 80.35, "deceleration": 69.35, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 9.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.649067, 12.584691, 12.46727, 12.219949 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.986, "trend_reference": 11.93779, "distance_from_trend": 0.087806, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.745681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.332488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.029175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.13023, "excess_performance": 0.013567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087806, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035512, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.332488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003715, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13023, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.564686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2540064, "relative_activity": 1.70283, "balance": 1.564686, "dry_up": 1.112388, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019287, "annualized_volatility": 0.132757, "from_high_reference": -0.004294, "from_low_reference": 0.234411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.93779, "fair_value_reference": 9.745681, "structural_low": 10.6469, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.01846, "positive_rate": 0.78125, "directional_follow_through": 0.78125, "median_excess_return": 0.006248, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.059818, "worst_return": -0.056855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.053726, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.016367, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.127217, "worst_return": -0.063113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.123896, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.001268, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.175054, "worst_return": -0.009773, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -2.081361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.540807, "energy": 57.929295, "activity_lines": [ 12.536933, 12.526218, 12.302108, 12.070711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.462, "volume": 1149467, "typical_volume": 1552113.35, "trend": 11.856033, "fair_value": 9.675617, "relative_strength": -2.261779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.127749, "energy": 54.766223, "activity_lines": [ 12.517733, 12.515491, 12.347269, 12.111877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.436, "volume": 734999, "typical_volume": 1395797.75, "trend": 11.890847, "fair_value": 9.708529, "relative_strength": -3.219616, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.966494, "energy": 43.299714, "activity_lines": [ 12.4948, 12.499236, 12.384273, 12.149294 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.986, "volume": 2540064, "typical_volume": 1491672.3, "trend": 11.93779, "fair_value": 9.745681, "relative_strength": -0.029175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.312687, "energy": 60.755727, "activity_lines": [ 12.649067, 12.584691, 12.46727, 12.219949 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }