{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a06f32e9-3d9b-43e1-a63a-eaad9fe26bd6",
    "symbol": "J69U",
    "name": "Frasers Centrepoint Trust",
    "exchange": "SES",
    "country": "SG",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^STI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 56.43,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -19.996,
    "architecture_energy": 18.343,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.666,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.457,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 67.67,
        "rotation_up": 27.73,
        "upward_expansion": 21.11,
        "deceleration": 50.38,
        "rotation_down": 42.68,
        "downward_expansion": 41.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.247333,
        2.253636,
        2.259762,
        2.258258
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 2.21,
    "trend_reference": 2.257,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.020824,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 2.111684,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.046558,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -18.276439,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.017778,
    "excess_performance": -0.172613,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020824,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002651,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046558,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038701,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.182764,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.098675,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017778,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.323012,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 31789300,
      "relative_activity": 1.68463,
      "balance": 1.323012,
      "dry_up": 1.269596,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026453,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.114136,
      "from_high_reference": -0.082466,
      "from_low_reference": 0.025479
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.257,
      "fair_value_reference": 2.111684,
      "structural_low": 2.17,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.004517,
        "positive_rate": 0.611111,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.611111,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01872,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.06422,
        "worst_return": -0.059633,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.025818,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.046722,
        "regime_survival": 0.222222,
        "best_return": 0.124401,
        "worst_return": -0.088305,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.030001,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005917,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.089795,
        "worst_return": -0.041991,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.06185,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017494,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.124026,
        "worst_return": 0.013183,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.009478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014151,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.042253,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012336,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.044248,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041284,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.043956,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.027149,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048035,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040909,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.008621,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.013274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.022124,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 19982000,
        "typical_volume": 19441461.6,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 23235700,
        "typical_volume": 18715566.6,
        "trend": 2.260333,
        "fair_value": 2.107335,
        "relative_strength": -15.246294,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 18.430683,
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        "activity_lines": [
          2.262,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2.27,
        "volume": 20823100,
        "typical_volume": 18110681.6,
        "trend": 2.258667,
        "fair_value": 2.109702,
        "relative_strength": -15.451173,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.966481,
        "energy": 12.74053,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.264,
          2.263455,
          2.264571,
          2.261398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.21,
        "volume": 31789300,
        "typical_volume": 18870196.6,
        "trend": 2.257,
        "fair_value": 2.111684,
        "relative_strength": -18.276439,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.995875,
        "energy": 18.343474,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.247333,
          2.253636,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}