{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a07139d3-c7ee-4cc3-bb3d-9eb7c85a309d", "symbol": "GHY", "name": "PGIM Global High Yield Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.341, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.635, "architecture_energy": 11.203, "architecture_maturity": 36.327, "architecture_confidence": 61.179, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.26, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 24.04, "deceleration": 60.64, "rotation_down": 43.75, "downward_expansion": 52.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.741333, 11.765576, 11.76039, 11.754842 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.79, "trend_reference": 11.821463, "distance_from_trend": -0.002661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.706113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10124, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.385068, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04558, "excess_performance": -0.171205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000482, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.10124, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029291, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.17962, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 944621, "relative_activity": 1.378278, "balance": 1.17962, "dry_up": 1.053676, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02068, "annualized_volatility": 0.124614, "from_high_reference": -0.055512, "from_low_reference": 0.076037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.821463, "fair_value_reference": 10.706113, "structural_low": 10.956872, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007499, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004135, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.041296, "worst_return": -0.088666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045522, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.04214, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059186, "worst_return": -0.085613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009226, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.014906, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.092421, "worst_return": -0.206291, "sufficient": true 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"volume": 552757, "typical_volume": 677783.4, "trend": 11.834286, "fair_value": 10.663505, "relative_strength": -8.909344, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.379973, "energy": 12.779351, "activity_lines": [ 11.796492, 11.784229, 11.750853, 11.768586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.66, "volume": 734653, "typical_volume": 665693.55, "trend": 11.82874, "fair_value": 10.684617, "relative_strength": -9.679639, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.205687, "energy": 15.496794, "activity_lines": [ 11.741698, 11.761497, 11.749714, 11.757342 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.79, "volume": 944621, "typical_volume": 685363.25, "trend": 11.821463, "fair_value": 10.706113, "relative_strength": -11.385068, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.635454, "energy": 11.202963, "activity_lines": [ 11.741333, 11.765576, 11.76039, 11.754842 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }