{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a074596c-5650-4812-a27f-175f3e00dbeb", "symbol": "INTC", "name": "Intel Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.529, "architecture_energy": 24.51, "architecture_maturity": 81.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.594, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.53, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 46.91, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 40.08, "downward_expansion": 27.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.860666, 92.150545, 92.722095, 83.262494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 87.720001, "trend_reference": 70.144667, "distance_from_trend": 0.250558, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.669814, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.459222, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 41.966469, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.035503, "excess_performance": 0.861256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.250558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.431378, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.459222, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.838338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.419665, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.183437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.035503, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540686, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4941, "relative_activity": 0.450916, "balance": 0.540686, "dry_up": 0.795194, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150251, "annualized_volatility": 0.759718, "from_high_reference": -0.244835, "from_low_reference": 4.067006 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.144667, "fair_value_reference": 35.669814, "structural_low": 36.07, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.017782, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.057259, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.343594, "worst_return": -0.198347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002817, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.07637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.658659, "worst_return": -0.293912, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.264554, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.372632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016138, "worst_return": -0.545247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.321811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.232289, 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37.22251, "activity_lines": [ 97.214666, 100.581272, 91.748666, 79.886527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.260002, "volume": 12558, "typical_volume": 11538.75, "trend": 66.936, "fair_value": 34.993557, "relative_strength": 47.769928, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.359861, "energy": 28.792343, "activity_lines": [ 91.320666, 97.696727, 92.377381, 81.18586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.879997, "volume": 7369, "typical_volume": 11226.15, "trend": 68.476167, "fair_value": 35.305833, "relative_strength": 35.881843, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.102361, "energy": 28.770962, "activity_lines": [ 85.669332, 93.985999, 92.271452, 82.020957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.720001, "volume": 4941, "typical_volume": 10957.7, "trend": 70.144667, "fair_value": 35.669814, "relative_strength": 41.966469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.529141, "energy": 24.509688, "activity_lines": [ 84.860666, 92.150545, 92.722095, 83.262494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }