{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a07b804f-f6cf-4524-9f8b-5181d1dbe910", "symbol": "EUJP", "name": "WisdomTree Long JPY Short EUR", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.237, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.268, "architecture_energy": 8.724, "architecture_maturity": 32.945, "architecture_confidence": 38.247, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.02, "rotation_up": 28.48, "upward_expansion": 25.03, "deceleration": 50.16, "rotation_down": 32.14, "downward_expansion": 56.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.212067, 26.175673, 26.174272, 26.225699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.606001, "trend_reference": 26.295434, "distance_from_trend": 0.011811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.801679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.212879, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.820802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012906, "excess_performance": -0.103757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.212879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024619, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.189975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500, "relative_activity": 1.286008, "balance": 0.189975, "dry_up": 3.125, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006202, "annualized_volatility": 0.065811, "from_high_reference": -0.25394, "from_low_reference": 0.027259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.295434, "fair_value_reference": 33.801679, "structural_low": 25.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0422, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.095803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006905, "worst_return": -0.077494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.062528, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.116745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.01482, "worst_return": -0.110235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.079459, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.024438, "worst_return": -0.134481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.120586, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.120586, "worst_return": -0.120586, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-07-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-07-30", "end": "2021-08-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2021-08-20", "end": "2021-09-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-09-10", "end": "2021-09-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-09-24", 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26.197286, 26.382286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.115999, "volume": 2591, "typical_volume": 341.25, "trend": 26.936167, "fair_value": 33.983954, "relative_strength": -24.19027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.427773, "energy": 56.298526, "activity_lines": [ 26.137667, 26.151709, 26.182719, 26.308843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.978001, "volume": 1734, "typical_volume": 427.35, "trend": 26.613367, "fair_value": 33.921877, "relative_strength": -23.734087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.285848, "energy": 60.355767, "activity_lines": [ 26.077467, 26.117691, 26.157529, 26.247026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.966999, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 417.85, "trend": 26.2902, "fair_value": 33.85973, "relative_strength": -23.616306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.018993, "energy": 68.488452, "activity_lines": [ 26.028, 26.085964, 26.134219, 26.205325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.606001, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 388.8, "trend": 26.295434, "fair_value": 33.801679, "relative_strength": -21.820802, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.268126, "energy": 8.724268, "activity_lines": [ 26.212067, 26.175673, 26.174272, 26.225699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }