{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a08278b2-1479-4e95-ba1e-1312ef0f246e", "symbol": "EKI", "name": "EKINOPS S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.092, "architecture_energy": 12.234, "architecture_maturity": 37.439, "architecture_confidence": 83.22, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.61, "rotation_up": 17.68, "upward_expansion": 44.99, "deceleration": 82.77, "rotation_down": 37.12, "downward_expansion": 29.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.538, 2.610182, 2.675295, 2.559017 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.525, "trend_reference": 2.432367, "distance_from_trend": 0.038084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.518846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.282435, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.198757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112335, "excess_performance": 0.059023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.282435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078012, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080335, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.088112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 249222, "relative_activity": 0.286314, "balance": 7.088112, "dry_up": 0.668483, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148667, "annualized_volatility": 0.71425, "from_high_reference": -0.33727, "from_low_reference": 0.867604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.432367, "fair_value_reference": 3.518846, "structural_low": 1.59, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050118, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067049, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.017831, "worst_return": -0.085631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.168591, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.076923, "worst_return": -0.532244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.309064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.385973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223512, "worst_return": -0.545035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.196871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06448, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.195513, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.28172, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2.675314, 2.537551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.48, "volume": 420740, "typical_volume": 874545.25, "trend": 2.398033, "fair_value": 3.585513, "relative_strength": -0.754739, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.33273, "energy": 17.563383, "activity_lines": [ 2.586667, 2.711, 2.675024, 2.543935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.525, "volume": 565378, "typical_volume": 877807.85, "trend": 2.4182, "fair_value": 3.550737, "relative_strength": 0.380005, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.153956, "energy": 12.694644, "activity_lines": [ 2.554667, 2.655364, 2.676805, 2.552127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.525, "volume": 249222, "typical_volume": 870451.2, "trend": 2.432367, "fair_value": 3.518846, "relative_strength": -1.198757, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.092482, "energy": 12.23447, "activity_lines": [ 2.538, 2.610182, 2.675295, 2.559017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }