{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a085d555-4c7e-4ec3-b69d-50774aa19372", "symbol": "600048", "name": "Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.679, "architecture_energy": 28.733, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.421, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.41, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 17.7, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 26.74, "downward_expansion": 63.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.133333, 5.010412, 5.246572, 5.488919 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.3, "trend_reference": 5.83049, "distance_from_trend": -0.090986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.308811, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.362123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.671638, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.221733, "excess_performance": -0.178529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089151, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.362123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221733, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.162051, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 726712432, "relative_activity": 1.424707, "balance": 1.162051, "dry_up": 1.441036, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068355, "annualized_volatility": 0.307406, "from_high_reference": -0.380117, "from_low_reference": 0.175166 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.83049, "fair_value_reference": 8.308811, "structural_low": 4.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.016931, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.02479, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.370321, "worst_return": -0.184727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.029977, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.084067, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.246166, "worst_return": -0.230702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.043776, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095317, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.350013, "worst_return": -0.25065, "sufficient": true }, { 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5.264595, 5.524865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.3, "volume": 726712432, "typical_volume": 510078680.15, "trend": 5.83049, "fair_value": 8.308811, "relative_strength": -17.671638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.678512, "energy": 28.733189, "activity_lines": [ 5.133333, 5.010412, 5.246572, 5.488919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }