{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a08666be-96aa-4ae4-bd05-98bea418bf0c", "symbol": "COMSBF", "name": "CompAM SB Blockchain Tech Q EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.176, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.224, "architecture_energy": 4.992, "architecture_maturity": 12.433, "architecture_confidence": 39.635, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.51, "rotation_up": 22.83, "upward_expansion": 12.44, "deceleration": 61.07, "rotation_down": 40.95, "downward_expansion": 39.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 238.946002, 251.405839, 261.512612, 253.735552 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 236.431, "trend_reference": 243.628934, "distance_from_trend": -0.029545, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 184.609007, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.648272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.267965, "excess_performance": 0.097073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050902, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280712, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.267965, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.595238, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 3.669725, "balance": 1.595238, "dry_up": 1.697248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 1.174254, "annualized_volatility": 0.519709, "from_high_reference": -0.934894, "from_low_reference": 0.267965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 243.628934, "fair_value_reference": 184.609007, "structural_low": 190.716003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043386, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0168, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.241969, "worst_return": -0.14266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.410066, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.296819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.474252, "worst_return": 0.053121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.069228, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.086241, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.310264, "worst_return": -0.074086, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041465, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121425, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109731, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.226985, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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258.164001, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 4.35, "trend": 243.475101, "fair_value": 183.174853, "relative_strength": -4.960353, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.994385, "energy": 10.579177, "activity_lines": [ 255.556935, 267.57613, 266.87605, 255.746004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 219.292007, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 4.45, "trend": 243.409901, "fair_value": 183.818783, "relative_strength": -19.607965, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.489218, "energy": 5.045341, "activity_lines": [ 242.209403, 257.293822, 263.388084, 254.185804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 236.431, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 5.45, "trend": 243.628934, "fair_value": 184.609007, "relative_strength": -15.648272, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.223744, "energy": 4.992203, "activity_lines": [ 238.946002, 251.405839, 261.512612, 253.735552 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }