{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a08f7af2-8c92-4857-8af8-4834e2bfa7ec", "symbol": "NXT", "name": "Nextracker Inc. Class A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.422, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.792, "architecture_energy": 54.882, "architecture_maturity": 12.867, "architecture_confidence": 87.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.9, "rotation_up": 10.85, "upward_expansion": 10.9, "deceleration": 39.68, "rotation_down": 67.72, "downward_expansion": 86.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.571333, 105.043636, 114.728, 116.086301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 103.26, "trend_reference": 116.132333, "distance_from_trend": -0.110842, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.656058, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.597066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.20091, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.149213, "excess_performance": -0.336667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.597066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.569124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.525967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16645159, "relative_activity": 1.257589, "balance": 0.525967, "dry_up": 1.277087, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206419, "annualized_volatility": 0.684933, "from_high_reference": -0.367008, "from_low_reference": 0.962745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.132333, "fair_value_reference": 64.656058, "structural_low": 87.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.124878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063214, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.339733, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002855, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.291857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.646092, "energy": 40.964941, "activity_lines": [ 105.312, 112.851091, 119.133, 118.565376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.87, "volume": 20284451, "typical_volume": 12872754.95, "trend": 115.729333, "fair_value": 64.259776, "relative_strength": -18.343882, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.161721, "energy": 52.12989, "activity_lines": [ 99.640667, 107.360727, 116.222, 116.890774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 103.26, "volume": 16645159, "typical_volume": 13235765.1, "trend": 116.132333, "fair_value": 64.656058, "relative_strength": -11.20091, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.791756, "energy": 54.881718, "activity_lines": [ 99.571333, 105.043636, 114.728, 116.086301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }