{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0991da2-c49f-48a6-b3ea-799244eca9fe", "symbol": "MTF-F46", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) S&P Health Care Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.562, "architecture_energy": 62.486, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 56.803, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.18, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 43.89, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.858667, 63.896, 1292.264667, 2441.922323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 65.57, "trend_reference": 3810.144333, "distance_from_trend": -0.982791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5319.681603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.752342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989411, "excess_performance": -1.018311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.982791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346409, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987674, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.998312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987523, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.749676, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.660254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16406, "relative_activity": 2.801212, "balance": 2.660254, "dry_up": 1.365134, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.1412, "annualized_volatility": 6.359431, "from_high_reference": -0.989663, "from_low_reference": 0.133253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3810.144333, "fair_value_reference": 5319.681603, "structural_low": 57.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.012435, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.027667, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.06418, "worst_return": -0.04736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000557, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.029597, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.082556, "worst_return": -0.090747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047795, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.030951, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.105528, "worst_return": -0.105032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002616, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": 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63.398, 376.926364, 2196.92119, 3246.675161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.81, "volume": 2155, "typical_volume": 5115.15, "trend": 4223.242, "fair_value": 5388.424744, "relative_strength": -98.869737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.230233, "energy": 66.915939, "activity_lines": [ 63.779333, 167.647273, 1866.672381, 2965.227527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.5, "volume": 4444, "typical_volume": 5260.6, "trend": 4019.058667, "fair_value": 5354.402308, "relative_strength": -98.780061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.79189, "energy": 63.044078, "activity_lines": [ 64.466667, 63.297091, 1565.23781, 2696.986108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.57, "volume": 16406, "typical_volume": 5856.75, "trend": 3810.144333, "fair_value": 5319.681603, "relative_strength": -98.752342, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.562037, "energy": 62.48632, "activity_lines": [ 64.858667, 63.896, 1292.264667, 2441.922323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }