{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a09a468d-05ba-4ed8-a73f-1ec6b067e417",
    "symbol": "ELVA",
    "name": "Electrovaya Inc.",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -6.765,
    "architecture_energy": 11.584,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.479,
    "architecture_confidence": 42.528,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.14,
        "rotation_up": 21.82,
        "upward_expansion": 16.42,
        "deceleration": 57.62,
        "rotation_down": 44.96,
        "downward_expansion": 39.09
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.933333,
        9.162545,
        9.53481,
        9.332452
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 9.71,
    "trend_reference": 9.194667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.056047,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.580771,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.11973,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 8.485643,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.097175,
    "excess_performance": -0.090278,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056047,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.128688,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.11973,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.446939,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.084856,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.308905,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097175,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.178037,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2414176,
      "relative_activity": 0.642674,
      "balance": 2.178037,
      "dry_up": 2.979487,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.195173,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.643235,
      "from_high_reference": -0.240219,
      "from_low_reference": 1.368293
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.194667,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.580771,
      "structural_low": 7.05,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.110397,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043759,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.393684,
        "worst_return": -0.152577,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.366547,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.218484,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.631579,
        "worst_return": -0.295082,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.088483,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.138168,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.010526,
        "worst_return": -0.355191,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.320931,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.557457,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.292135,
        "worst_return": -0.349727,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-01-12",
        "end": "2024-02-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.091201,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-02-23",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.117486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.068966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.103448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.161017,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.155039,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.116327,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.756579,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.68,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031566,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.28836,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.027368,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.001031,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 4.461765,
        "relative_strength": -0.986153,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 35671490,
        "typical_volume": 3570324.15,
        "trend": 9.144333,
        "fair_value": 4.488752,
        "relative_strength": 12.351887,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.494045,
        "energy": 15.943601,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 4021931,
        "typical_volume": 3656134.4,
        "trend": 9.156,
        "fair_value": 4.516124,
        "relative_strength": -0.339038,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.281368,
        "energy": 16.749832,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 8.22,
        "volume": 2661621,
        "typical_volume": 3691476.7,
        "trend": 9.166,
        "fair_value": 4.542085,
        "relative_strength": -2.673827,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.311055,
        "energy": 20.915428,
        "activity_lines": [
          8.653333,
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          9.499857,
          9.297355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.71,
        "volume": 2414176,
        "typical_volume": 3756453.05,
        "trend": 9.194667,
        "fair_value": 4.580771,
        "relative_strength": 8.485643,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -6.764958,
        "energy": 11.584135,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}